426 15th St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$286,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,139 sqft · Land · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 5,175 sqft lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 426 15th Street! The Jayde is a two-story, four bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home with modern and functional design features. The main floor showcases an open concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry and direct access to the covered patio. Just off the kitchen is a convenient laundry room and powder bath. A dedicated study near the front entrance provides ideal space for a home office or flex room. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and private suite bath. Three additional bedrooms share a second full bathroom, and a cozy alcove near the stairs. This thoughtfully designed layout balances shared living space with private retreats, making it ideal for families or anyone in need of extra space. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction / Under construction; 2 stories; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stone construction; Composition roof; Built on slab
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Fenced backyard (wood); Sprinklers in front; Paved, public-maintained city street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Disposal; Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-456/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,816 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $153,734
• Equity at exit: $258,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $454,339
• Equity at exit: $557,558

Cash invested: $80,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $280,270

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $43	+0% $-38	+5% $-119	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-121	+0% $-38	+5% $45	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $35	base $-38	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,748
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.15mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	0.36mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.46mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	15d	1	0.54mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	0.57mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	45d	1	0.57mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	0.59mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	45d	1	0.65mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	45d	1	0.73mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	23d	1	0.77mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	15d	2	0.93mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	45d	1	1.06mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	1.08mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	15d	1	1.11mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	45d	1	1.32mi
2915 Tractor Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,995	$1.16	15d	1	1.40mi
213 Wildcat St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2811	$2,800	$1.00	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Welcome to 426 15th Street! The Jayde is a two-story, four bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home with modern and functional design features. The main floor showcases an open concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry and direct access to the covered patio. Just off the kitchen is a convenient laundry room and powder bath. A dedicated study near the front entrance provides ideal space for a home office or flex room. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and private suite bath. Three additional bedrooms share a second full bathroom, and a cozy alcove near the stairs. This thoughtfully designed layout balances shared living space with private retreats, making it ideal for families or anyone in need of extra space. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

2. 2026-05-15
   price $288,990 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Welcome to 426 15th Street! The Jayde is a two-story, four bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home with modern and functional design features. The main floor showcases an open concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry and direct access to the covered patio. Just off the kitchen is a convenient laundry room and powder bath. A dedicated study near the front entrance provides ideal space for a home office or flex room. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and private suite bath. Three additional bedrooms share a second full bathroom, and a cozy alcove near the stairs. This thoughtfully designed layout balances shared living space with private retreats, making it ideal for families or anyone in need of extra space. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 876-char remark
4. 2026-04-27
   listed $286,990 Active 876-char remark
5. 2026-04-25
   historical 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Welcome to 426 15th Street! The Jayde is a two-story, four bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home with modern and functional design features. The main floor showcases an open concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry and direct access to the covered patio. Just off the kitchen is a convenient laundry room and powder bath. A dedicated study near the front entrance provides ideal space for a home office or flex room. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and private suite bath. Three additional bedrooms share a second full bathroom, and a cozy alcove near the stairs. This thoughtfully designed layout balances shared living space with private retreats, making it ideal for families or anyone in need of extra space. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

6. 2026-04-08
   listed $286,990 Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Welcome to 426 15th Street! The Jayde is a two-story, four bedroom, two-and-a-half bath home with modern and functional design features. The main floor showcases an open concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry and direct access to the covered patio. Just off the kitchen is a convenient laundry room and powder bath. A dedicated study near the front entrance provides ideal space for a home office or flex room. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and private suite bath. Three additional bedrooms share a second full bathroom, and a cozy alcove near the stairs. This thoughtfully designed layout balances shared living space with private retreats, making it ideal for families or anyone in need of extra space. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,252 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,400/yr (+$367/mo · 516.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$5,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $286,990 LARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $286,990 Zillow