127 Buckhorn Dr · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1973 0.55 ac lot Est $124k · 41% over $161/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

TUCKED AWAY IN THE WOODS! Great get-away home in Fawn Lake Forest with spacious open floor plan. Home features wood tongue & grove sunroom with skylights, 2 bedrooms, brick faced fireplace with pellet stove insert, laundry room and hardwood floors plus a new roof was installed in 2012! Great place to get away to the country in a great community with indoor/outdoor pools, 2-lakes (one for power-boats), beach, clubhouse, gym, sports courts and much more! Plus skiing is just up the road!, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Huge front deck
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD TONGUE GROOVE SUNROOM
• BRICK FACED FIREPLACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HUGE FRONT DECK
• NEW BOARD BATTEN VINYL SIDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Fawn Lake community with homeowners association; Amenities include: clubhouse, pool (indoor and outdoor noted), fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court, shuffleboard, sport courts, playground, picnic area, park, party room, game courts (interior and exterior), dog park, beach access/rights, powered boats allowed, barbecue facilities, security; Annual association fee and additional one-time fee (derived monthly HOA approx. $160.92)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl and vertical siding; Built with crawl-space foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Patio/porch; Fire pit; Shed(s); Wooded lot; Views of Fawn Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric range/oven
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating: fireplace insert, baseboard, electric; Has cooling: ceiling fan(s); Pellet stove insert in living room (fireplace)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Crawl space with exterior entry
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fawn Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $175k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,760
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Fawn Lake Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	892 (-6%)	12mo	$115,000	$129	62
239 Forest Ridge Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	900 (-6%)	16mo	$140,000	$156	59
241 Forest Ridge Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+9%)	18mo	$135,000	$130	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $103,423
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $298,474
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,196/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $175	+0% $126	+5% $76	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $53	+0% $126	+5% $199	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $170	base $126	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2015-11-30
   soldstatus $70,000
4. 2015-11-25
   soldstatus $70,000 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   TUCKED AWAY IN THE WOODS! Great get-away home in Fawn Lake Forest with spacious open floor plan. Home features wood tongue & grove sunroom with skylights, 2 bedrooms, brick faced fireplace with pellet stove insert, laundry room and hardwood floors plus a new roof was installed in 2012! Great place to get away to the country in a great community with indoor/outdoor pools, 2-lakes (one for power-boats), beach, clubhouse, gym, sports courts and much more! Plus skiing is just up the road!, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1

5. 2015-03-29
   listed $72,900 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   TUCKED AWAY IN THE WOODS! Great get-away home in Fawn Lake Forest with spacious open floor plan. Home features wood tongue & grove sunroom with skylights, 2 bedrooms, brick faced fireplace with pellet stove insert, laundry room and hardwood floors plus a new roof was installed in 2012! Great place to get away to the country in a great community with indoor/outdoor pools, 2-lakes (one for power-boats), beach, clubhouse, gym, sports courts and much more! Plus skiing is just up the road!, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1

6. 2006-05-11
   soldstatus $113,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,196
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$303
• After-tax cash flow: $1,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $175,000 PWMLS
• 2015-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-25 Sold (MLS) $70,000 PWMLS
• 2015-03-29 Listed $72,900 PWMLS
• 2006-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $113,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,196 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.