425 S Alvord St · Syracuse, NY 13208

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1910 3,300 sqft lot Est $83k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS, now is the time to add to your portfolio. This 3 bedroom home is tenant occupied and currently rents for $995.00/mo.

Key facts

• 3,300 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 30 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $49,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$83,356) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $853 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.23%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 E Division St	0.28mi	3/2.0	952 (+4%)	4mo	$70,000	$74	73
908 Highland St	0.31mi	3/1.0	908 (-1%)	15mo	$121,900	$134	72
119 Beecher St	0.25mi	3/1.0	952 (+4%)	15mo	$139,900	$147	69
210 Carbon St	0.20mi	3/1.0	984 (+7%)	12mo	$75,000	$76	68
339 Douglas St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,003 (+10%)	2mo	$55,000	$55	66
1212 Butternut St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+9%)	5mo	$75,000	$75	63
105 Knaul St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	949 (+4%)	10mo	$80,000	$84	62
126 Delong Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-0%)	3mo	$90,000	$99	62
107 Kirkpatrick St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-2%)	11mo	$90,000	$100	56
119 Lawrence St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+10%)	3mo	$130,000	$129	56
714 E Division St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,044 (+14%)	10mo	$50,000	$48	54
131 Delong Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (+7%)	5mo	$90,000	$91	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $81,508
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.3%
• Equity multiple: 15.13×
• Total profit: $197,370
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13208

• Home prices YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $440

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 E Division St Unit F2 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	43d	1	0.13mi
912 Park St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	0.18mi
746 E Laurel St Unit 2F Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	0.19mi
205 Beecher St Unit 3 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	815	$1,100	$1.35	43d	1	0.31mi
517 N Salina St Unit 4 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	13d	1	0.38mi
807-13 N Salina St Unit 809A Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,325	$1.30	43d	1	0.38mi
416 Pearl St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	13d	1	0.55mi
721 N Clinton St Unit 213 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	43d	1	0.58mi
721 N Clinton St Unit 105 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	43d	1	0.58mi
200 Catherine St Apt 5 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	43d	1	0.71mi
525 Burnet Ave Unit First Floor Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	43d	1	0.81mi
373 Spencer St Unit 303 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.5	1085	$1,850	$1.71	43d	1	0.83mi
208 W Water St Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	962	$1,800	$1.87	43d	1	0.87mi
101 S Salina St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	651	$2,871	$4.41	13d	14	0.87mi
1507 N Salina St Unit 3 Syracuse, NY	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,350	$1.31	43d	1	0.91mi
324 W Water St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,975	$1.96	13d	6	0.94mi
129 W Fayette St Unit 217 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	13d	1	0.98mi
110 Walton St Unit 301 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1051	$2,000	$1.90	21d	1	1.02mi
110 Walton St Unit 201 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1051	$2,200	$2.09	43d	1	1.02mi
120 Walton St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$3,200	$3.88	43d	2	1.03mi
201 E Jefferson St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	662	$1,626	$2.45	13d	9	1.04mi
205 E Jefferson St Unit 2B Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	1.04mi
900 E Fayette St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,995	$2.44	13d	9	1.06mi
286 Ross Park Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.06mi
60 Presidential Plz Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,315	$1.36	43d	1	1.12mi
300 University Ave Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1020	$2,150	$2.11	13d	1	1.14mi
538 Erie Blvd W Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	21d	1	1.15mi
111 E Onondaga St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$3,000	$2.61	21d	5	1.19mi
472 S Salina St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	1022	$2,095	$2.05	13d	3	1.19mi
212 Dorchester Ave Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	640	$1,420	$2.22	13d	15	1.27mi
502 University Ave Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	13d	2	1.33mi
917 Madison St #5 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	1.33mi
1132 Wolf St Unit 4 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,350	$1.30	43d	1	1.41mi
1140 Wolf St Apt 3 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-02-16
   status Pending
2. 2023-10-30
   status Active
3. 2023-07-25
   historical
4. 2023-05-25
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
5. 2023-04-25
   listed $49,900 Active
6. 2023-02-03
   historical
7. 2022-11-03
   listed $59,900 Active
8. 2020-10-29
   soldstatus $207,775
9. 2018-10-10
   soldstatus $26,550
10. 2004-04-27
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $10,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,409
• After-tax cash flow: $7,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,993
• Household income: $44,712
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 24% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Swedish 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Vietnam, Philippines, Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.91%
• Current HPI: 399.3284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+211.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-10-30 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2023-07-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-05-25 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-04-25 Listed $49,900 CNYIS
• 2023-02-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2020-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $207,775 Public Records
• 2018-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $26,550 Public Records
• 2004-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.