19B Mallard St · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$84,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition $77/sqft · 19% below area Est $105k · 19% under $495/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 2 BR Duplex Quail model co-op in the 55+ Community of Cedar Glen West in Manchester at the Jersey Shore. Front and Back Access. Kitchen, dining room, bedroom, extra room, laundry area. New SS refrigerator and uodated cabinets. . Updated dishwasher and stove with self cleaning. Newer microwave. The maintenance plan includes taxes, water, sewer, outside maintenances, roofing, HWH, furnace, snow removal up to the cars and landscaping. HOA will be putting a new front patio. The community is approximately 6 miles to the Garden State Pkwy and centrally located between AC, NYC and Philadelphia. Cash only purchase, Enjoy the clubhouse, play bocce and sit by the lake in the gazebo.

Key facts

• Updated dishwasher
• Updated cabinets
• Newer microwave

Tags

• FRONT AND BACK ACCESS
• NEW SS REFRIGERATOR
• UPDATED CABINETS
• UPDATED DISHWASHER
• UPDATED STOVE
• NEWER MICROWAVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Glen West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,756 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.09%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,421
• List price: $84,950
• Delta: -19.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2C Dove St	0.25mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	6mo	$78,000	$80	64
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.31mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	6mo	$57,500	$59	61
6 Dove St Unit D	0.28mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	3mo	$80,000	$82	60
22 C Robin St	0.45mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	3mo	$158,000	$163	57
16 B Dove St	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	0mo	$73,000	$75	56
12 Heron St Unit D	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	980 (-11%)	1mo	$120,000	$122	56
12A Robin St Unit A	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	6mo	$109,900	$113	54
6 C Swallow St	0.55mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	2mo	$110,000	$113	53
18 Dove St Unit A	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	6mo	$69,900	$72	52
17 Heron St Unit D	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	4mo	$55,000	$57	50
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	3mo	$53,000	$55	47
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	5mo	$45,000	$46	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $28,348
• Equity at exit: $12,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $79,850
• Equity at exit: $7,345

Cash invested: $23,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$495
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $84,950

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,238
• Closing costs: $2,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $495 · $5,940/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscapingsnow removal

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,950 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,950 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,950 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,950 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,950 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,950 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,950 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $84,950 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    price $89,900 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Updated 2 BR Duplex Quail model co-op in the 55+ Community of Cedar Glen West in Manchester at the Jersey Shore. Front and Back Access. Kitchen, dining room, bedroom, extra room, laundry area. New SS refrigerator and uodated cabinets. . Updated dishwasher and stove with self cleaning. Newer microwave. The maintenance plan includes taxes, water, sewer, outside maintenances, roofing, HWH, furnace, snow removal up to the cars and landscaping. HOA will be putting a new front patio. The community is approximately 6 miles to the Garden State Pkwy and centrally located between AC, NYC and Philadelphia. Cash only purchase, Enjoy the clubhouse, play bocce and sit by the lake in the gazebo.

15. 2026-01-07
    listed $99,800 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Updated 2 BR Duplex Quail model co-op in the 55+ Community of Cedar Glen West in Manchester at the Jersey Shore. Front and Back Access. Kitchen, dining room, bedroom, extra room, laundry area. New SS refrigerator and uodated cabinets. . Updated dishwasher and stove with self cleaning. Newer microwave. The maintenance plan includes taxes, water, sewer, outside maintenances, roofing, HWH, furnace, snow removal up to the cars and landscaping. HOA will be putting a new front patio. The community is approximately 6 miles to the Garden State Pkwy and centrally located between AC, NYC and Philadelphia. Cash only purchase, Enjoy the clubhouse, play bocce and sit by the lake in the gazebo.

16. 2025-09-12
    price $99,800
17. 2025-08-13
    status Active
18. 2025-08-11
    status Pending
19. 2025-06-21
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,759
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$5,940
• − Depreciation: −$2,471
• Taxable income: $7,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,754
• After-tax cash flow: $6,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through exterior and interior updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Light green siding shows some discoloration
• Minor Landscaping — Some bushes appear overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Interior painting — Improves interior appearance and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Light green siding shows some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some bushes appear overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Interior painting — Improves interior appearance and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $89,900 MOMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $99,800 MOMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $99,800 MOMLS
• 2025-08-13 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-08-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $115,000 MOMLS