787 Halderman Hollow Rd · Horseheads, NY 14903

$44,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1920 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a Small House with a Detached Garage. It is 2 Bedrooms, one is on the upper level. Convenient to the Horseheads and the Elmira Heights area.

Key facts

• Detached garage
• 0.5 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• CONVENIENT TO HORSEHEADS
• CONVENIENT TO ELMIRA HEIGHTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rectangular, rural lot (296 x 74)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Existing construction; Vinyl siding; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Blown-in insulation; Vinyl siding; Year built: existing
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 5.1% in Horseheads — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#494 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($308 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $44k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,165 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.09%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,970
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
787 Halderman Hollow Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (-1%)	1mo	$35,000	$44	98
324 Sunset Ter	0.13mi	2/1.0	912 (+13%)	6mo	$172,000	$189	67
238 Lenox Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	907 (+13%)	3mo	$140,000	$154	51
4027 Rockwell Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+13%)	11mo	$131,900	$145	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $37,580
• Equity at exit: $22,043

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $89,285
• Equity at exit: $35,645

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14903

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
263 W 13th St Unit Lower Elmira Heights, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,241	$1.38	44d	1	1.23mi
258 E 14th St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.24mi
2146 College Ave Unit 2C Loft Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,145	$1.53	44d	1	1.26mi
200-202 Robinwood Ave Elmira Heights, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $44,500 Active
3. 2025-07-24
   status Pending
4. 2025-07-23
   historical
5. 2025-06-30
   status Active
6. 2025-03-08
   status Pending
7. 2025-02-26
   price $44,900
8. 2025-02-26
   status Active
9. 2025-02-13
   listed Active Under Contract
10. 2024-12-19
    listed $45,900
11. 2014-04-30
    soldstatus $25,136
12. 2005-06-23
    soldstatus $10,000
13. 2003-10-06
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,350 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $5,393
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Horseheads Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614850
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,594
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2781
• State rank: #347 of 590 in NY

Livability — Horseheads

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #8689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,140

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• Current HPI: 234.7884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+187.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $44,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-24 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-30 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-03-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $44,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-26 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-02-13 Listed — UNYREIS
• 2024-12-19 Listed $45,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,136 Public Records
• 2005-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,350 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.