8770 Stewart Rd · Richburg, NY 14739

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1938 Est $76k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nice older style home on rural road. Large living room dining combo. Eat in kitchen with appliances. Separate laundry/mudroom to back yard. 2nd floor has large 1/2 bath. Would make good income property. Needs tlc. Family needs to sell and will consider all reasonable offers.

Key facts

• Built 1938
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#994 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $60k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.24%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,032
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8766 Stewart Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,534 (+9%)	10mo	$40,000	$26	67
2984 Route 305	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-8%)	14mo	$83,740	$65	61
2906 Route 305	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-15%)	6mo	$65,000	$54	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $49,518
• Equity at exit: $45,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $125,175
• Equity at exit: $88,944

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14739

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,738/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $590	-5% $412	+0% $395	+5% $378	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $347	+0% $395	+5% $444	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $426	-0.5pp $411	base $395	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 275-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $60,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,738 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,738 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$2,738
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$995
• After-tax cash flow: $3,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Richburg

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #994
• US rank: #19418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 322
• Population (ZIP): 2,494

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Polish 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.87%
• Current HPI: 301.9616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $60,000 Fizber.com
• 2018-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,738 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.