16825 Walnut Creek Dr · Strongsville, OH 44149

$289,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,996 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 9,757 sqft lot $145/sqft · 27% below area Est $397k · 27% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom split level offering comfortable living, inviting spaces, and timeless appeal! Located in a welcoming neighborhood, this home is designed for easy everyday living and effortless entertaining. The bright and spacious living room flows into the formal dining area and eat-in kitchen, where abundant cabinet and counter space create the perfect setting for casual meals. Enjoy your morning coffee with a breathtaking view of the wooded setting and beautiful garden spaces. Upstairs, three comfortable bedrooms provide peaceful retreats along with a well-appointed full bath. The lower-level family room features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect space for relaxing

Key facts

• Formal dining area
• Eat-in kitchen
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• FORMAL DINING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WELL-APPOINTED FULL BATH
• LOWER-LEVEL FAMILY ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• FULLY FENCED REAR YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Strongsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#27 in OH, #243 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Strongsville City (suburban): math 73% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #62 of 656 in OH (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $242,500 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,931
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -26.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15279 Walnut Creek Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,960 (-2%)	3mo	$344,000	$176	74
20425 Sandalwood Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-4%)	12mo	$387,000	$203	69
20474 Sandalwood Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,068 (+4%)	11mo	$385,000	$186	67
19955 Bowman Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,109 (+6%)	12mo	$450,000	$213	66
19297 Lauren Way	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,854 (-7%)	7mo	$270,000	$146	60
20555 Hemlock Cir	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,946 (-2%)	10mo	$329,000	$169	60
17758 Lyon Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,086 (+4%)	9mo	$402,000	$193	58
20343 Lunn Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,960 (-2%)	12mo	$352,000	$180	54
19267 Bradford Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,742 (-13%)	10mo	$270,000	$155	49
18267 Walnut Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-13%)	1mo	$324,900	$187	45
20678 Spruce Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+8%)	7mo	$325,000	$151	45
20889 Autumn Oval #31	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-11%)	7mo	$299,900	$170	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,344
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,527
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44149

• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,552

Max offer price $275,331

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $-1	+0% $-101	+5% $-201	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-196	+0% $-101	+5% $-5	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-27	base $-101	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14448 Settlers Way Strongsville, OH	2.0	2.0	1546	$2,425	$1.57	21d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1240-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $289,900 Active 1240-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,484
• After-tax cash flow: $276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home offers a good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed.
• Minor Bathtub and fixtures — Update needed for functionality and appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint freshening — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Kitchen cabinet upgrade — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Resale Bathtub and fixture replacement — Improves functionality and appearance, attracting buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and fixtures · Update needed for functionality and appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint freshening — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Kitchen cabinet upgrade — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Resale Bathtub and fixture replacement — Improves functionality and appearance, attracting buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Strongsville City
• NCES district ID: 3904484
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,206
• Composite: 67.02/100
• National rank: #395
• State rank: #62 of 656 in OH

Livability — Strongsville

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #243

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strongsville, OH
• County: Cuyahoga · 1,045,444 people
• City population: 46,110
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,042
• Household income: $114,107
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2.7

Population outlook (Cuyahoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,244,621 people
• By 2030: 1,230,093 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 1,189,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 1,145,706 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 1,076,557 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 978,987 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cuyahoga

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.5) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.5 2020: D+34.1 2016: D+35.0 2012: D+38.7 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.17%
• Current HPI: 196.9311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-14 Listed $289,900 MLSNOW