2631 12th Sq SW · Florida Ridge, FL 32968

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2004 3,485 sqft lot Est $280k · 7% over $198/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, well-maintained 3-bed, 2-bath single-family home is nestled in the highly desirable Majestic Oaks community of Vero Beach. Ideally located with access to I-95 and just a short drive to everyday shopping, dining, beaches, and nearby St. Lucie County. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, as this residence has been thoughtfully cared for with attention to detail inside and out. Residents of Majestic Oaks enjoy a well-kept community with a low HOA, adding to the overall appeal of this home. This move-in-ready property offers a fantastic opportunity in a highly sought-after location.

Key facts

• Access to i-95
• Well-kept community
• Low hoa

Tags

• ACCESS TO I-95
• SHORT DRIVE TO SHOPPING
• SHORT DRIVE TO DINING
• SHORT DRIVE TO BEACHES
• WELL-KEPT COMMUNITY
• LOW HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (contact for details)
• HOA & community: Part of Majestic Oaks association; Quarterly association fee; Association amenities include pool, playground, basketball court and picnic area; Association fees cover grounds maintenance, common areas and recreation facility

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level living area; Faces east
• Construction: Built by Maronda Homes; Concrete/CBS construction; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($323/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Florida Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#353 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 666 students, 78% FRL); Oslo Middle School (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 864 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $299k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,507 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1304 32nd Ave SW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+0%)	1mo	$299,000	$242	83
2075 14th St SW	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-3%)	3mo	$223,000	$186	68
1606 20th Ave SW	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-4%)	2mo	$214,900	$183	60
1116 SW 33rd Ave Ave SW	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	0mo	$390,000	$283	60
1255 18th Ave SW	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-6%)	1mo	$229,000	$199	59
1395 25th Ave Ave SW	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,051 (-15%)	2mo	$239,000	$227	59
945 33rd Ave SW	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	1mo	$319,900	$238	57
1635 19th Ave SW	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+7%)	3mo	$299,000	$228	54
1645 SW 19th Ave Ave SW	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+8%)	2mo	$305,000	$229	52
1134 37th Ave SW	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+11%)	0mo	$264,900	$193	50
1456 20th Ave SW	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$157	49
1175 34th Ave SW	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+14%)	2mo	$245,000	$175	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,725
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-38,430
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32968

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,592/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$198
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $112	+0% $27	+5% $-58	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-76	+0% $27	+5% $129	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $103	base $27	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2565 Langrove Ln SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.46mi
2619 Langrove Ln SW Unit 2619 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,450	$1.67	23d	1	0.49mi
826 Middleton Dr SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,150	$1.47	23d	1	0.54mi
2543 Stockbridge Sq SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,200	$1.50	15d	1	0.60mi
1123 37th Ave SW Unit 1541760P Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$3,075	$2.46	15d	1	0.68mi
248 27th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	836	$1,700	$2.03	23d	1	1.27mi
2624 2nd St SW Vero Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,750	$2.34	15d	1	1.35mi
3673 2nd Pl SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$4,800	$3.40	23d	1	1.40mi
3673 2nd Pl SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$4,800	$3.40	15d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $198 · $2,376/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $299,000 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Charming, well-maintained 3-bed, 2-bath single-family home is nestled in the highly desirable Majestic Oaks community of Vero Beach. Ideally located with access to I-95 and just a short drive to everyday shopping, dining, beaches, and nearby St. Lucie County. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, as this residence has been thoughtfully cared for with attention to detail inside and out. Residents of Majestic Oaks enjoy a well-kept community with a low HOA, adding to the overall appeal of this home. This move-in-ready property offers a fantastic opportunity in a highly sought-after location.

19. 2026-05-06
    listed $299,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Charming, well-maintained 3-bed, 2-bath single-family home is nestled in the highly desirable Majestic Oaks community of Vero Beach. Ideally located with access to I-95 and just a short drive to everyday shopping, dining, beaches, and nearby St. Lucie County. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, as this residence has been thoughtfully cared for with attention to detail inside and out. Residents of Majestic Oaks enjoy a well-kept community with a low HOA, adding to the overall appeal of this home. This move-in-ready property offers a fantastic opportunity in a highly sought-after location.

20. 2016-08-16
    historical
21. 2016-04-28
    historical
22. 2016-02-04
    soldstatus $143,900
23. 2016-01-29
    soldstatus $143,900
24. 2015-10-26
    soldstatus $125,000
25. 2015-09-09
    listed $134,900
26. 2015-04-01
    historical
27. 2014-08-27
    historical
28. 2014-06-06
    listed $124,000
29. 2014-05-16
    listed $124,000
30. 2014-01-20
    listed $129,000
31. 2014-01-20
    listed $129,000
32. 2014-01-20
    listed $123,900
33. 2013-12-03
    historical
34. 2013-09-21
    historical
35. 2013-06-21
    soldstatus $112,500
36. 2012-10-24
    listed $119,990
37. 2012-01-04
    listed $125,000
38. 2010-04-12
    listed $134,900
39. 2004-12-30
    soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$890/yr (+$74/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,592
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − HOA: −$2,376
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $1,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Florida Ridge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #6129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florida Ridge, FL
• City population: 25,629
• Population (ZIP): 15,576

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.63%
• Current HPI: 312.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+57.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $299,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $299,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-04-28 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2016-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $143,900 Public Records
• 2016-01-29 Sold (MLS) $143,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2015-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-09 Listed $134,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2015-04-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-08-27 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-06-06 Listed $124,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-05-16 Listed $124,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2014-01-20 Listed $123,900 RAIRCMLS
• 2014-01-20 Listed $129,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-01-20 Listed $129,000 SCMLS
• 2013-12-03 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2013-09-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2013-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2012-10-24 Listed $119,990 Beaches MLS
• 2012-01-04 Listed $125,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-04-12 Listed $134,900 Beaches MLS
• 2004-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,592 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.