11226 Primrose Cir · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$369,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,829 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1996 8,756 sqft lot Est $466k · 21% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a quiet, established neighborhood in Lakewood Ranch. Featuring excellent curb appeal, a spacious driveway, and mature landscaping, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and Florida living. Step inside to discover a bright open-concept floor plan with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and generous living spaces perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen offers ample cabinetry, plenty of counter space, and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed ensuite bath, while the addit

Key facts

• Soaring ceilings
• Spacious driveway
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• SPACIOUS DRIVEWAY
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SOARING CEILINGS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: PDR/WPE/
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA; annual fee $102 (monthly equivalent $8.50) — contact association for info; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Construction: Other; Slab foundation; Built for single-family use
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Other kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($987/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $357k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $370k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $356,668 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $466,395
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11206 Pine Lilly Pl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,851 (+1%)	5mo	$489,000	$264	90
6657 Meandering Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,849 (+1%)	6mo	$450,000	$243	89
6556 Meandering Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,765 (-4%)	0mo	$499,900	$283	84
6748 Hickory Hammock Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,868 (+2%)	9mo	$430,000	$230	76
6764 Hickory Hammock Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,757 (-4%)	6mo	$285,000	$162	72
6744 Hickory Hammock Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-8%)	9mo	$459,000	$272	66
6567 Meandering Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,990 (+9%)	9mo	$520,000	$261	64
7135 Spikerush Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,815 (-1%)	0mo	$415,000	$229	64
6259 Tassleflower Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-5%)	9mo	$439,000	$253	62
12014 Beeflower Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-6%)	9mo	$445,000	$260	52
7126 Spikerush Ct	0.60mi	3/3.0	2,019 (+10%)	7mo	$515,000	$255	45
10404 Palmbrooke Ter	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,095 (+14%)	5mo	$470,000	$224	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-36,208
• Equity at exit: $85,773

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-37,762
• Equity at exit: $87,106

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$634 /mo · $7,602/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,463

Max offer price $369,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $187	+0% $82	+5% $-22	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-59	+0% $82	+5% $223	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $176	base $82	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11318 Pine Lilly Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	3.0	2241	$4,495	$2.01	20d	1	0.09mi
11318 Pine Lilly Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	3.0	2241	$4,245	$1.89	4d	1	0.09mi
6759 Hickory Hammock Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1817	$2,300	$1.27	3d	1	0.30mi
6759 Hickory Hammock Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,750	$1.51	24d	1	0.30mi
11709 Clubhouse Dr Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$4,000	$2.07	17d	1	0.30mi
6714 Hickory Hammock Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$2,950	$1.57	24d	1	0.35mi
6412 Rosefinch Ct #201 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,100	$1.44	24d	1	0.44mi
6401 Shoal Creek Street Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2083	$3,500	$1.68	24d	1	0.48mi
6815 Honeysuckle Trl Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$5,500	$2.29	12d	1	0.59mi
11503 Water Poppy Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,695	$1.40	22d	1	0.71mi
9910 Laurel Valley Avenue Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2379	$4,500	$1.89	17d	1	0.73mi
7342 Loblolly Bay Trl Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	2027	$3,500	$1.73	12d	1	0.83mi
12336 Hollybush Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,310	$1.18	11d	1	0.87mi
12709 Nightshade Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1724	$3,100	$1.80	24d	1	1.11mi
7328 Lake Forest Gln Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,000	$2.67	24d	1	1.21mi
13335 Purple Finch Cir Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	3.0	2532	$5,500	$2.17	4d	1	1.48mi
11209 Ranch Creek Ter Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1099	$2,536	$2.31	2d	30	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $369,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $390,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $410,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $410,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,602 · $634/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,602 · $634/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$7,602
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,424
• − Management: −$3,424
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$5,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+329.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $165,900 Public Records
• 1999-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $141,200 Public Records
• 1996-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,602 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.