8807 226th St E #12 · Graham, WA 98338

$149,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $140k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,440 sqft of comfortable living in the all-ages Shadow Pines community! Situated in a cute, well-kept park. Step inside to a bright, open layout with abundant natural light throughout. The spacious living areas flow seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Cozy up by the freestanding stove or unwind on the inviting covered front porch, ideal for relaxing year-round. Outside, enjoy a covered carport with additional storage and easy, low-maintenance yard space. For added security and convenience, the home includes installed security cameras that will stay. Conveniently located nea

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1994
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a dead-end, paved street with open space nearby
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Shadow Pines park (approximately 50 homes); Land lease: $848/month; Park approved for manufactured home sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric power; Community/shared well water (park); Park sewer; Electric water heater located in closet; Power service provided by TPU
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Redman); One level; Faces south; Good condition; Mobile home remains in place
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation with tie downs; Manufactured after June 15, 1976
• Exterior features: Wood exterior/wood products; Awnings; Patio/porch/deck; Drapes; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 bathtubs, 2 showers)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood burning); Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $150k implies a 488% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $145,451 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.08%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,400
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22505 91st Ave E	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	6mo	$113,300	$84	80
9005 219th Street Ct E	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-5%)	1mo	$380,000	$284	71
22607 91st Avenue Ct E #10	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	15mo	$150,000	$112	70
9016 220th Street Ct E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-8%)	3mo	$405,000	$314	67
9309 221st St E #38	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$157,000	$104	65
22210 92nd Avenue Ct E #6	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-8%)	17mo	$130,000	$100	58
9322 218th Street Ct E #12	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	7mo	$142,000	$94	56
22317 92nd Avenue Ct E #16	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+11%)	16mo	$156,000	$100	54
22716 91st Avenue Ct E #40	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	20mo	$120,000	$97	53
9327 218th Street Ct E #9	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	9mo	$147,000	$97	52
9009 219th Street Ct E	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+14%)	9mo	$390,000	$243	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $57,005
• Equity at exit: $22,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $156,882
• Equity at exit: $12,965

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98338

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,258/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,950 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,950 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,950 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,950 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,950 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,950 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,950 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,950 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,950 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,950 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,950 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,950 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $154,900 Active
16. 2010-05-18
    soldstatus $25,500 Sold
17. 2010-05-14
    status Pending
18. 2010-05-09
    status Pending Inspection
19. 2010-02-27
    status Active
20. 2010-02-10
    status Pending
21. 2010-01-03
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$1,258
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $13,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,242
• After-tax cash flow: $11,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,687
• Household income: $114,819
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -501.28%
• Current HPI: 304.4241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+416.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $154,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-18 Sold (MLS) $25,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-27 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-03 Listed $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,258 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.