3800 Fernhill Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,513 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1927 10,018 sqft lot $109/sqft · 43% below area Est $289k · 43% under ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Front porch cape cod style detached home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Full Baths, and 2 Half Baths. Spacious living area, Outside Entrance, Rear Entrance basement, Rear Deck, Patio, and fence backyard.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Detached home
• Outside entrance

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• CAPE COD STYLE
• DETACHED HOME
• OUTSIDE ENTRANCE
• REAR ENTRANCE BASEMENT
• REAR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,685
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -42.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3908 Fernhill Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,578 (+4%)	1mo	$139,900	$89	84
3803 Fernhill Ave	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-9%)	15mo	$255,000	$185	70
3700 Belle Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-10%)	6mo	$295,000	$217	60
5304 Wabash Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+2%)	3mo	$305,000	$198	59
3802 Grantley Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,664 (+10%)	1mo	$193,900	$117	57
3812 Callaway Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+14%)	11mo	$280,000	$162	44
4217 Ridgewood Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-11%)	2mo	$150,000	$111	42
4018 Elderon Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-9%)	14mo	$230,000	$167	41
5222 Cuthbert Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,455 (-4%)	17mo	$215,000	$148	38
3507 Cedardale Rd	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,321 (-13%)	1mo	$185,000	$140	38
4405 Vesta Ave	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (-8%)	19mo	$215,000	$155	33
3314 Barrington Rd	0.75mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,364 (-10%)	23mo	$379,900	$279	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,653
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,074
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,906/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $236	+0% $189	+5% $143	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $117	+0% $189	+5% $262	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $231	base $189	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	24d	1	0.17mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.40mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	24d	1	0.50mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.53mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	18d	1	0.61mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	24d	1	0.62mi
3914 Maine Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2127	$1,150	$0.54	44d	1	0.76mi
4704 Pimlico Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	2006	$1,800	$0.90	24d	1	0.80mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	44d	1	0.85mi
2915 Oakford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,600	$1.45	18d	1	0.88mi
2619 Loyola Northway Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,995	$1.43	24d	1	0.90mi
2454 W Cold Spring Ln Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	24d	1	1.01mi
5340 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.03mi
5115 Pembridge Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,150	$1.98	44d	1	1.07mi
3822 Pall Mall Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,875	$1.42	44d	1	1.08mi
2415 Loyola Southway Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,033	$1.69	44d	1	1.08mi
3912 Mortimer Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,723	$2.26	44d	1	1.15mi
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	1.16mi
5807 Gist Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	2100	$1,395	$0.66	24d	1	1.23mi
3403 Carlisle Ave Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	12d	1	1.25mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $165,000 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Front porch cape cod style detached home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Full Baths, and 2 Half Baths. Spacious living area, Outside Entrance, Rear Entrance basement, Rear Deck, Patio, and fence backyard.

2. 2026-04-29
   status Active 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Front porch cape cod style detached home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Full Baths, and 2 Half Baths. Spacious living area, Outside Entrance, Rear Entrance basement, Rear Deck, Patio, and fence backyard.

3. 2026-03-21
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Front porch cape cod style detached home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Full Baths, and 2 Half Baths. Spacious living area, Outside Entrance, Rear Entrance basement, Rear Deck, Patio, and fence backyard.

4. 2026-01-17
   listed $175,000 Active 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Front porch cape cod style detached home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Full Baths, and 2 Half Baths. Spacious living area, Outside Entrance, Rear Entrance basement, Rear Deck, Patio, and fence backyard.

5. 2023-11-29
   historical
6. 2023-11-10
   listed $365,000 Active
7. 2008-03-22
   historical
8. 2008-01-21
   price
9. 2007-10-15
   price
10. 2007-10-02
    price
11. 2007-08-09
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,906 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,906 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,906
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $2,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-54.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-10 Listed $365,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-03-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-01-21 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-10-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-10-02 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-08-09 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,906 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.