194 Shohola Pkwy N Lot 2612 & lot 2613 · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$45,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1984 Poor condition 9,583 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Handy Man SpecialThis property in Trails End Recreational Park is 2 Level stoned lots with an RV which needs repairs or removal. Great for that handyman to bring back to life or put on 1 or 2 new rvs on 2 great lots. . 1 shed on each property . Property close to Clubhouse and activities

Key facts

• 2 level stoned lots
• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Community pool

Tags

• 2 LEVEL STONED LOTS
• 1 SHED ON EACH PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road and private road frontage; Zoned commercial
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Annual association fee listed; One-time association fee listed; Association covers electricity, security, water, trash and sewer; Community amenities: pool, basketball court, racquetball, playground, game room, fitness center, clubhouse, restaurant

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel on-site parking; Off-street parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water available; Public sewer / sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Manufactured house / Manufactured home; Vacation RV/Trailer subtype; Vacant; No common walls
• Construction: Shingle roof; Above-grade finished area listed as 250
• Exterior features: Enclosed front porch; Split rail fencing; Cleared lot with few trees; Close to clubhouse; Rectangular, interior corner lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes living and sleeping areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Storage
• Laundry & utility: No laundry on site; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($317 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.54%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
973 Beaver Ln	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	500 (0%)	14mo	$26,000	$52	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $59,592
• Equity at exit: $41,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.56×
• Total profit: $148,617
• Equity at exit: $89,174

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 287-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $45,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $6,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $4,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and landscaping to become livable and attractive. Significant investment is needed to improve its condition and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Mobile home exterior — Significant rust and wear
• Major Roof — Appears to be in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improving curb appeal and overall condition
• Both Mobile home repairs — Restoring the home to livable condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Mobile home exterior · Significant rust and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Appears to be in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improving curb appeal and overall condition ↑
• Both Mobile home repairs — Restoring the home to livable condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $45,900 PWMLS