26790 Burning Tree · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$184,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1985 0.58 ac lot $118/sqft · 10% below area Est $226k · 18% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2.5 bath in Peach Creek Forest on half an acre! Recently refreshed interior! Kitchen has granite counters and lots of cabinet space! Spacious Primary Suite with dream en suite bathroom. A full hall bath AND a second bedroom with half bath. Fully fenced yard with gated driveway. Detached garage with space for a car and workshop, plus additional space in storage shed. Being sold as-is at this fantastic price! Check out the 360 Tour link!

Key facts

• Cabinet space
• Gated driveway
• Workshop

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• CABINET SPACE
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GATED DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,157
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -18.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26763 Royal Coach Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+1%)	3mo	$300,000	$189	89
26714 Saddle Rock Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,648 (+5%)	4mo	$235,000	$143	80
27015 Coach Light Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-8%)	9mo	$219,900	$153	60
19786 Pin Oak N	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+3%)	21mo	$220,000	$137	54
26990 Royal Coach Ln	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,363 (-13%)	9mo	$150,000	$110	53
19947 Timber Line Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-13%)	12mo	$275,000	$201	50
26221 Peach Creek Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,783 (+14%)	1mo	$130,000	$73	43
26330 Hunters Trl	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,398 (-11%)	12mo	$215,000	$154	32
20063 Roadway	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (+14%)	12mo	$299,000	$168	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-29,292
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-37,735
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,776

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $142	+0% $90	+5% $38	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $15	+0% $90	+5% $165	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $137	base $90	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Artesian Way Roman Forest, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$1,495	$0.95	44d	1	1.27mi
630 Magnolia Bnd Roman Forest, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,545	$1.07	25d	1	1.40mi
634 Magnolia Bnd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,485	$1.02	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $184,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $184,900 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2.5 bath in Peach Creek Forest on half an acre! Recently refreshed interior! Kitchen has granite counters and lots of cabinet space! Spacious Primary Suite with dream en suite bathroom. A full hall bath AND a second bedroom with half bath. Fully fenced yard with gated driveway. Detached garage with space for a car and workshop, plus additional space in storage shed. Being sold as-is at this fantastic price! Check out the 360 Tour link!

15. 2026-05-03
    status Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2.5 bath in Peach Creek Forest on half an acre! Recently refreshed interior! Kitchen has granite counters and lots of cabinet space! Spacious Primary Suite with dream en suite bathroom. A full hall bath AND a second bedroom with half bath. Fully fenced yard with gated driveway. Detached garage with space for a car and workshop, plus additional space in storage shed. Being sold as-is at this fantastic price! Check out the 360 Tour link!

16. 2026-04-10
    status Pending 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2.5 bath in Peach Creek Forest on half an acre! Recently refreshed interior! Kitchen has granite counters and lots of cabinet space! Spacious Primary Suite with dream en suite bathroom. A full hall bath AND a second bedroom with half bath. Fully fenced yard with gated driveway. Detached garage with space for a car and workshop, plus additional space in storage shed. Being sold as-is at this fantastic price! Check out the 360 Tour link!

17. 2026-02-26
    listed $199,000 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2.5 bath in Peach Creek Forest on half an acre! Recently refreshed interior! Kitchen has granite counters and lots of cabinet space! Spacious Primary Suite with dream en suite bathroom. A full hall bath AND a second bedroom with half bath. Fully fenced yard with gated driveway. Detached garage with space for a car and workshop, plus additional space in storage shed. Being sold as-is at this fantastic price! Check out the 360 Tour link!

18. 2025-05-04
    historical
19. 2025-04-09
    status Active
20. 2025-03-24
    status Pending
21. 2025-03-18
    status Option Pending
22. 2025-02-11
    price $184,970
23. 2024-12-08
    listed $199,900 Active
24. 2019-04-09
    soldstatus
25. 2005-11-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,275 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,275 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$1,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$453
• After-tax cash flow: $1,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $184,970 HARMLS
• 2024-12-08 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2019-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,275 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.