18 Norfolk Dr · Springs, NY 11937

$1,225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 224 Days on market

Built 1981 0.41 ac lot $817/sqft · 27% below area Est $1669k · 27% under $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Renovation though price is reflective of as-is project take over Step into your dream getaway with this three-bedroom, two-bath home on .41 acres in East Hampton’s coveted Clearwater Beach community. Updated with a brand-new roof, new windows to the refinished hardwood floors that run throughout. The Baths were just redesigned, blending modern style with Hamptons charm. Set on a generous lot with room for a pool and future expansion, the home offers indoor-outdoor living potential, whether you envision a deck, garden, or a private backyard retreat. Clearwater Beach residents enjoy exclusive access to a gated bay beach with spectacular sunsets, a private marina and dock, and a vibrant community setting — all just minutes from East Hampton Village and ocean beaches. This is your opportunity to secure a Hamptons lifestyle in one of the East End’s most sought-after waterfront communities. all new Roof, windows and doors, decking, hot water heater, bathrooms and decking, current price is reflective of as-is taking over the project.

Key facts

• Redesigned baths
• Room for a pool
• Brand new roof

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• REDESIGNED KITCHEN
• REDESIGNED BATHS
• ROOM FOR A POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.23M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($100k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.23M).
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,339/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $343k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $170k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $1.23M implies a 1976% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,078,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.27%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,669,065
• List price: $1,225,000
• Delta: -26.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Norfolk Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	0mo	$1,180,000	$787	100
16 Lion Head Rock Rd	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+7%)	10mo	$1,850,000	$1,156	59
104 Pembroke Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,697 (+13%)	14mo	$1,525,000	$899	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $441,749
• Equity at exit: $182,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $1,559,452
• Equity at exit: $105,916

Cash invested: $343,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,424
• Tax from tax record: −$741 /mo · $8,892/yr
• Insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,271
• Net cashflow: $8,367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,747

Max offer price $1,225,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $306,250
• Closing costs: $36,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Pembroke Dr East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$30,000	$15.00	24d	1	0.15mi
19 Pond Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$85,000	$56.67	43d	1	0.56mi
1181 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$75,000	$46.88	43d	1	0.74mi
85 Camberly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	1700	$40,000	$23.53	24d	1	0.85mi
12 Maidstone Park Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.5	1800	$75,000	$41.67	43d	1	1.13mi
12 Underwood Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$30,000	$18.75	18d	1	1.20mi
197 Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$20,000	$11.76	43d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1073-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1073 chars)

   Under Renovation though price is reflective of as-is project take over Step into your dream getaway with this three-bedroom, two-bath home on .41 acres in East Hampton’s coveted Clearwater Beach community. Updated with a brand-new roof, new windows to the refinished hardwood floors that run throughout. The Baths were just redesigned, blending modern style with Hamptons charm. Set on a generous lot with room for a pool and future expansion, the home offers indoor-outdoor living potential, whether you envision a deck, garden, or a private backyard retreat. Clearwater Beach residents enjoy exclusive access to a gated bay beach with spectacular sunsets, a private marina and dock, and a vibrant community setting — all just minutes from East Hampton Village and ocean beaches. This is your opportunity to secure a Hamptons lifestyle in one of the East End’s most sought-after waterfront communities. all new Roof, windows and doors, decking, hot water heater, bathrooms and decking, current price is reflective of as-is taking over the project.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $1,225,000 1073-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1073 chars)

   Under Renovation though price is reflective of as-is project take over Step into your dream getaway with this three-bedroom, two-bath home on .41 acres in East Hampton’s coveted Clearwater Beach community. Updated with a brand-new roof, new windows to the refinished hardwood floors that run throughout. The Baths were just redesigned, blending modern style with Hamptons charm. Set on a generous lot with room for a pool and future expansion, the home offers indoor-outdoor living potential, whether you envision a deck, garden, or a private backyard retreat. Clearwater Beach residents enjoy exclusive access to a gated bay beach with spectacular sunsets, a private marina and dock, and a vibrant community setting — all just minutes from East Hampton Village and ocean beaches. This is your opportunity to secure a Hamptons lifestyle in one of the East End’s most sought-after waterfront communities. all new Roof, windows and doors, decking, hot water heater, bathrooms and decking, current price is reflective of as-is taking over the project.

3. 2026-03-18
   price $1,279,000 1073-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1073 chars)

   Under Renovation though price is reflective of as-is project take over Step into your dream getaway with this three-bedroom, two-bath home on .41 acres in East Hampton’s coveted Clearwater Beach community. Updated with a brand-new roof, new windows to the refinished hardwood floors that run throughout. The Baths were just redesigned, blending modern style with Hamptons charm. Set on a generous lot with room for a pool and future expansion, the home offers indoor-outdoor living potential, whether you envision a deck, garden, or a private backyard retreat. Clearwater Beach residents enjoy exclusive access to a gated bay beach with spectacular sunsets, a private marina and dock, and a vibrant community setting — all just minutes from East Hampton Village and ocean beaches. This is your opportunity to secure a Hamptons lifestyle in one of the East End’s most sought-after waterfront communities. all new Roof, windows and doors, decking, hot water heater, bathrooms and decking, current price is reflective of as-is taking over the project.

4. 2025-09-24
   listed $1,395,000 Active 1073-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1073 chars)

   Under Renovation though price is reflective of as-is project take over Step into your dream getaway with this three-bedroom, two-bath home on .41 acres in East Hampton’s coveted Clearwater Beach community. Updated with a brand-new roof, new windows to the refinished hardwood floors that run throughout. The Baths were just redesigned, blending modern style with Hamptons charm. Set on a generous lot with room for a pool and future expansion, the home offers indoor-outdoor living potential, whether you envision a deck, garden, or a private backyard retreat. Clearwater Beach residents enjoy exclusive access to a gated bay beach with spectacular sunsets, a private marina and dock, and a vibrant community setting — all just minutes from East Hampton Village and ocean beaches. This is your opportunity to secure a Hamptons lifestyle in one of the East End’s most sought-after waterfront communities. all new Roof, windows and doors, decking, hot water heater, bathrooms and decking, current price is reflective of as-is taking over the project.

5. 2020-12-23
   historical
6. 2020-09-26
   listed $719,000 Active
7. 2020-05-18
   historical
8. 2019-11-18
   listed $689,000 New
9. 2014-07-07
   historical
10. 2014-04-07
    listed $499,000
11. 2001-09-24
    soldstatus $59,000
12. 1993-06-25
    soldstatus $160,000
13. 1987-11-18
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,892 · $741/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,797 · $1,233/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,905/yr (+$492/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $244,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$68,619
• − Property taxes: −$8,892
• − Insurance: −$6,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,526
• − Management: −$19,526
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$35,636
• Taxable income: $85,446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,507
• After-tax cash flow: $79,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+17400.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $1,225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $1,279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-26 Listed $719,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-18 Listed $689,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-07 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,892 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.