1805 E Keys Ave · Springfield, IL 62702

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1910 5,800 sqft lot Est $148k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This north end home is chock full of space and possibilities! A bit of paint and flooring would go a long way to making it your own! Located near many conveniences (shopping, restaurants, parks) this sturdy home is in an established and popular neighborhood. Large rooms, storage, newer roof and water heater, a fenced backyard and a ginormous eat-in kitchen including all appliances and a nice view of the back. There is a front porch perfect for relaxing outside and a whirlpool tub to relieve the stress of the day. Come see all this awesome home has to offer! Inspections welcome; selling as is.

Key facts

• 5,800 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad with gravel surface; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1910
• Construction: Shingle roof; Total building area reported as 1,267 (living area matches)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — primary bedroom on the main level; two additional bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living areas; Vinyl flooring in the kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air electric heating
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement; No fireplace reported
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $90k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.71%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,239
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Midland Ct	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,175 (-7%)	4mo	$113,500	$97	76
1908 N 19th St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-4%)	4mo	$98,000	$81	70
1905 N 21st St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-7%)	2mo	$115,000	$97	68
1705 Fairfield Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,416 (+12%)	1mo	$165,000	$117	64
2015 N 19th St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,370 (+8%)	1mo	$120,000	$88	62
2010 N 16th St	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,308 (+3%)	1mo	$151,000	$115	60
2314 Ramsey Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-4%)	2mo	$170,000	$139	59
2256 E Black Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+7%)	1mo	$190,000	$141	59
2100 N 16th St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,275 (+1%)	2mo	$135,000	$106	58
1824 N 22nd St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-13%)	3mo	$152,500	$139	51
1722 N Peoria Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,133 (-11%)	1mo	$135,000	$119	43
1921 N Albany St	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (+14%)	1mo	$189,900	$132	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $8,967
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $45,714
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62702

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3501 E Ridgely Ave Unit FR21 Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,129	$0.93	21d	1	0.40mi
920 N 19th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	21d	1	0.57mi
1413 N 5th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	1.04mi
302 Forrest Ave Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,069	$1.16	21d	1	1.26mi
3064 Louise Ln Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	21d	1	1.26mi
2213 E Adams St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	1.41mi
1224 N Rutledge St Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $89,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $89,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $92,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $92,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $92,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $92,500 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,500 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    listed $92,500 Active
13. 1997-09-29
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$651
• After-tax cash flow: $3,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 31,033
• Household income: $51,136
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.98%
• Current HPI: 149.1926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+143.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $92,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,828 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.