201 E Marfa Ave · Alpine, TX 79830

$158,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 979 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 343 Days on market

Built 1960 7,840 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 bed/2 bath home in a quiet Alpine, TX neighborhood! This versatile property can be used as a single-family home or easily used as a duplex as each room features it's own living area and kitchen. Set on a desirable corner lot with a mature backyard tree offering shade and privacy. Enjoy peaceful living just minutes from SRSU and Alpine High School. Don't miss this opportunity to own a flexible property in one of Alpine's best neighborhoods. Great investment or family home—Call Garrett!

Key facts

• Mature backyard tree
• Corner lot
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE BACKYARD TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($458/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in TX, #2,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpine El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 377 students, 47% FRL); Alpine Middle (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 269 students, 58% FRL); Alpine H S (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,157
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,971
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79830

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,268/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $83	+0% $38	+5% $-7	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-18	+0% $38	+5% $94	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $78	base $38	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 East Ave E Unit 3 Alpine, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	16d	1	0.84mi
205 S 11th St Alpine, TX	2.0	1.0	754	$1,800	$2.39	16d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $158,000 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 339 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 338 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 332 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 331 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,000 Active 330 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 323 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 322 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 321 DOM
17. 2025-10-28
    status Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Charming 2 bed/2 bath home in a quiet Alpine, TX neighborhood! This versatile property can be used as a single-family home or easily used as a duplex as each room features it's own living area and kitchen. Set on a desirable corner lot with a mature backyard tree offering shade and privacy. Enjoy peaceful living just minutes from SRSU and Alpine High School. Don't miss this opportunity to own a flexible property in one of Alpine's best neighborhoods. Great investment or family home—Call Garrett!

18. 2025-10-22
    status Pending 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Charming 2 bed/2 bath home in a quiet Alpine, TX neighborhood! This versatile property can be used as a single-family home or easily used as a duplex as each room features it's own living area and kitchen. Set on a desirable corner lot with a mature backyard tree offering shade and privacy. Enjoy peaceful living just minutes from SRSU and Alpine High School. Don't miss this opportunity to own a flexible property in one of Alpine's best neighborhoods. Great investment or family home—Call Garrett!

19. 2025-07-08
    listed $158,000 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Charming 2 bed/2 bath home in a quiet Alpine, TX neighborhood! This versatile property can be used as a single-family home or easily used as a duplex as each room features it's own living area and kitchen. Set on a desirable corner lot with a mature backyard tree offering shade and privacy. Enjoy peaceful living just minutes from SRSU and Alpine High School. Don't miss this opportunity to own a flexible property in one of Alpine's best neighborhoods. Great investment or family home—Call Garrett!

20. 2023-07-10
    price $134,000
21. 2023-04-04
    price $150,000
22. 2006-09-07
    soldstatus
23. 2002-06-06
    soldstatus
24. 1995-09-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,268
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$2,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alpine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpine, TX
• County: Brewster County · 7,853 people
• City population: 7,853
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,853
• Household income: $66,546
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.21%
• Current HPI: 178.4899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2025-10-22 Pending — ODMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $158,000 ODMLS
• 2023-07-10 Price Changed $134,000 ODMLS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $150,000 ODMLS
• 2006-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,268 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.