445 Cat Island Rd · DeFuniak Springs, FL 32433

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1973 1.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This split level home needs a little TLC and someone to bring it back to life. It's located on 1.6 beautiful acres with Cat Island park just around the corner. Cat Island park offers docks to fish from or boat launches to launch your boat. The sellers have recently painted the exterior and added a new deck and stairs. Due to the repairs this home needs, offers will need to be cash or conventional loans only. Buyer to verify all measurements to own satisfaction.

Key facts

• New fencing
• New carport
• New siding

Tags

• 1.64 ACRES
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW EXTERIOR ADD-ONS
• NEW CARPORT
• NEW FENCING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approximately 15 x 14)
• Bedrooms: Multiple first-floor bedrooms (three listed at approximately 15 x 13; another bedroom 14 x 13; one bedroom 10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: Entrance foyer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (41.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $229k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,095 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Cat Island Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	18mo	$110,000	$115	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $106,166
• Equity at exit: $206,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $326,889
• Equity at exit: $444,897

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $177,881

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-225	+0% $-289	+5% $-354	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-342	+0% $-289	+5% $-236	+10% $-183
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-231	base $-289	+0.5pp $-349	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Blue Gill Loop Defuniak Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	790	$1,200	$1.52	14d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $229,000 Active
18. 2024-12-12
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    This split level home needs a little TLC and someone to bring it back to life. It's located on 1.6 beautiful acres with Cat Island park just around the corner. Cat Island park offers docks to fish from or boat launches to launch your boat. The sellers have recently painted the exterior and added a new deck and stairs. Due to the repairs this home needs, offers will need to be cash or conventional loans only. Buyer to verify all measurements to own satisfaction.

19. 2024-11-26
    status Pending 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    This split level home needs a little TLC and someone to bring it back to life. It's located on 1.6 beautiful acres with Cat Island park just around the corner. Cat Island park offers docks to fish from or boat launches to launch your boat. The sellers have recently painted the exterior and added a new deck and stairs. Due to the repairs this home needs, offers will need to be cash or conventional loans only. Buyer to verify all measurements to own satisfaction.

20. 2024-08-23
    price $146,000 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    This split level home needs a little TLC and someone to bring it back to life. It's located on 1.6 beautiful acres with Cat Island park just around the corner. Cat Island park offers docks to fish from or boat launches to launch your boat. The sellers have recently painted the exterior and added a new deck and stairs. Due to the repairs this home needs, offers will need to be cash or conventional loans only. Buyer to verify all measurements to own satisfaction.

21. 2024-07-19
    listed $165,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    This split level home needs a little TLC and someone to bring it back to life. It's located on 1.6 beautiful acres with Cat Island park just around the corner. Cat Island park offers docks to fish from or boat launches to launch your boat. The sellers have recently painted the exterior and added a new deck and stairs. Due to the repairs this home needs, offers will need to be cash or conventional loans only. Buyer to verify all measurements to own satisfaction.

22. 1998-09-25
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,272/yr (+$106/mo · 202.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$7,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — DeFuniak Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #14475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3171.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 ECAR
• 2024-11-26 Pending — ECAR
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $146,000 ECAR
• 2024-07-19 Listed $165,000 ECAR
• 1998-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $629 · +34.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.