108 Palm Dr · Union City, CA 94587

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $219k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 108 Palm Drive in the highly desirable The Tropics Mobile Home Park — a vibrant 55+ community with resort-style amenities and tropical-inspired charm. Situated on a desirable corner lot near ample guest parking, this home is conveniently located close to the clubhouse, pool, spa, shopping, dining, and easy access to Hwy 880. This spacious and well-maintained home offers a bright, inviting floor plan with generous living spaces and abundant natural light. Features include a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, a spacious primary suite, indoor laundry, covered parking, outdoor storage, and a relaxing patio area perfect for enjoying the Bay Area weather. Enjoy comfortable

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Functional kitchen
• Clubhouse

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GUEST PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SPA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in THE TROPICS park
• HOA & community: Pets allowed with size limits; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, greenbelt, putting green, guest parking, organized activities

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Mobile home (double wide); 1,404 square feet living area; Senior community
• Construction: Stucco, wood shingles and wood siding exterior; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Corner lot; Community pool; Clubhouse; Greenbelt; Putting green; Guest parking; Activities available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Primary bedroom suite on main entry level
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dining area; Storage; Double pane windows; Window coverings; Gas fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $305k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 1.8% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $305k implies a 1549% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $305,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.89%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Waikiki Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	85
269 Oahu	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	83
418 Fiji Cir #418	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$313,333	$233	82
328 Waikiki Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	3mo	$215,000	$160	81
259 Molokai Cir #259	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	0mo	$180,000	$134	81
17 Palm Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	81
179 Kona Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$260,000	$193	78
167 Kona Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	7mo	$247,000	$172	78
51 Palm Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	74
198 Hawaii Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+4%)	10mo	$185,000	$126	71
226 Hula Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$205,000	$153	68
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $24,303
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $120,939
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94587

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$776
• Net cashflow: $1,131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,264

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	18d	1	0.56mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	3d	1	0.56mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	15d	1	0.62mi
3716 Harlequin Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	2.5	1855	$4,500	$2.43	44d	1	0.64mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	44d	1	0.75mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.86mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	18d	1	0.87mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	2d	1	0.87mi
34077 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$2,887	$3.66	2d	13	1.04mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	20d	1	1.09mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	3d	1	1.11mi
3221 San Carlos Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,795	$2.72	3d	1	1.17mi
4163 Rainbow Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	3.0	1474	$3,695	$2.51	5d	1	1.27mi
2500 Medallion Dr Union City, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0	781	$3,195	$4.09	2d	9	1.27mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	24d	1	1.28mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	2d	1	1.38mi
3168 Courthouse Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1207	$4,200	$3.48	15d	1	1.39mi
3154 Sugar Beet Way Union City, CA	4.0	2.0	1412	$4,150	$2.94	2d	1	1.45mi
5016 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$3,150	$4.38	2d	10	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $305,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $305,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-22
   listed $305,000 Active
5. 2015-10-29
   historical
6. 2015-02-17
   historical
7. 1998-07-30
   soldstatus $18,500
8. 1998-07-30
   soldstatus $18,500
9. 1998-04-28
   listed $18,500
10. 1998-04-28
    listed $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $748 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,570/yr (+$131/mo · 209.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,548
• − Management: −$3,548
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable income: $9,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $11,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $87,202
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1754
• State rank: #85 of 517 in CA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #5027

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 67,464
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,464
• Household income: $133,715
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1565.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1280.49%
• Current HPI: 343.0333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1548.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $305,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-10-29 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-02-17 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-07-30 Sold (MLS) $18,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-07-30 Sold (MLS) $18,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-04-28 Listed $18,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-04-28 Listed $18,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $748 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.