645 W Kilpatrick St · Mineola, TX 75773

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1930 8,276 sqft lot Est $168k · 20% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Mineola Gem! Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Mineola, TX! Located just a short stroll from downtown, this charming property offers the perfect blend of small-town charm and modern amenities. Perfect for a first-time home buyer or a retiree. As soon as you step inside, you're greeted by the warmth of original hardwood floors, beautifully preserved and refinished to perfection. The interior design is enhanced by shiplap accents, adding a touch of rustic charm to this already delightful home. This home is bursting with character. Glass doorknobs, original wood built-ins and fireplace just to name a few. This home has been thoughtfully r

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.6% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#392 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mineola ISD (town): math 54% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #190 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mineola El (math 51% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 353 students, 69% FRL); Mineola Middle (math 60% / reading 51%, grade B-, #240 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 381 students, 69% FRL); Mineola H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 466 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.26%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,210
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 N Newsom St	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,265 (+2%)	10mo	$179,000	$142	56
605 N Line	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,305 (+5%)	4mo	$160,000	$123	55
516 W Blair St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (+10%)	22mo	$170,000	$124	52
1265 Fm 1799	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+11%)	4mo	$249,900	$180	46
601 N Newsom St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,314 (+6%)	12mo	$59,000	$45	41
208 W Kilpatrick St	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,078 (-14%)	19mo	$175,000	$162	37
107 Frances	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,073 (-14%)	19mo	$145,000	$135	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,230
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,785
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75773

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,120/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Chapparel St Mineola, TX	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,400	$0.98	44d	1	0.41mi
803 Second St Mineola, TX	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,400	$1.21	13d	1	0.56mi
806 S Newsom St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,750	$1.18	21d	1	0.77mi
806 N Newsom St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	0.88mi
515 Giraud St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	21d	1	0.91mi
167 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,350	$1.68	13d	5	1.22mi
150 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,750	$1.40	44d	1	1.29mi
233 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,700	$1.41	21d	1	1.30mi
211 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,700	$1.41	21d	1	1.30mi
211 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,700	$1.41	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $135,000 Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-10
   price $135,000
4. 2025-11-21
   listed $139,500 Active
5. 2025-10-16
   price $139,500
6. 2025-08-13
   price $149,500
7. 2025-07-11
   price $154,900
8. 1995-02-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,120 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,120 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,120
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $2,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineola ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,121
• Composite: 42.27/100
• National rank: #3274
• State rank: #190 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #8222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineola, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,311

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.31%
• Current HPI: 227.0529
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $135,000 GTAR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $139,500 GTAR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $139,500 GTAR
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $149,500 GTAR
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $154,900 GTAR
• 1995-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,120 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.