801 N Main St · Dodd City, TX 75438

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1985 0.66 ac lot $86/sqft · 43% below area Est $252k · 43% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly ¾ Acre + Shop + Updated Systems - Strong Value-Add Opportunity. C0ntact Jenna with any questions and or showing requests at nine oh three four three six three nine five eight - Any information used to advertise this listing is speculative in nature we make no guarantee or warranty regarding the information contained. Br0ker, agnt & seller expressly disclaim any warranty with respect to the accuracy of the submission items. Buyer & buyer’s agnt acknowledges they are relying on their own investigation & should perform a detailed independent analysis of the property to determine if it meets your satisfaction & accuracy of MLS data fields. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC will not be held liable for any MLS system errors and or discrepancies. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC 2025.

Key facts

• Updated systems
• 0.66 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• UPDATED SYSTEMS
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,415 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dodd City ISD (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #160 of 1,141 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,633 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,388
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -42.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 E 4th St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-8%)	9mo	$259,500	$168	65
503 N White Oak Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-5%)	24mo	$248,000	$155	61
205 E 4th St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-10%)	20mo	$265,000	$176	53
704 N Sulphur St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,466 (-13%)	20mo	$455,000	$310	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,003
• Equity at exit: $82,472

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $83,234
• Equity at exit: $142,586

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75438

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $120,633

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $145,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Nearly ¾ Acre + Shop + Updated Systems - Strong Value-Add Opportunity. C0ntact Jenna with any questions and or showing requests at nine oh three four three six three nine five eight - Any information used to advertise this listing is speculative in nature we make no guarantee or warranty regarding the information contained. Br0ker, agnt & seller expressly disclaim any warranty with respect to the accuracy of the submission items. Buyer & buyer’s agnt acknowledges they are relying on their own investigation & should perform a detailed independent analysis of the property to determine if it meets your satisfaction & accuracy of MLS data fields. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC will not be held liable for any MLS system errors and or discrepancies. Robinson Capital Real Estate, LLC 2025.

18. 2026-03-19
    historical
19. 2026-02-02
    price $209,000
20. 2026-01-06
    listed $219,000 Active
21. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus
23. 2019-06-04
    status Pending
24. 2019-05-26
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2019-03-14
    price $155,000
26. 2018-12-13
    price $158,000
27. 2018-10-23
    price $169,900
28. 2018-10-08
    listed $172,500 Active
29. 2014-10-07
    soldstatus
30. 1984-11-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,435 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,435 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$4,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$992
• After-tax cash flow: $-663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dodd City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817280
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,015
• Composite: 51.5/100
• National rank: #3675
• State rank: #160 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Dodd City

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1415
• US rank: #24219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dodd City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,279

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Current HPI: 287.5793
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2019-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-06-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-05-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-03-14 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2018-12-13 Price Changed $158,000 NTREIS
• 2018-10-23 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2018-10-08 Listed $172,500 NTREIS
• 2014-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,435 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.