5 Berkeley St Unit A · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$189,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1985 4,356 sqft lot $173/sqft · 7% below area Est $205k · 7% under $142/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is just what you've been waiting for with larger eat-in kitchen, open living/dining room, to the attached screened porch, extra half bath, larger lot and fabulous privacy. Double doors to second bedroom or den/office. Garage offers plenty of private storage. There are many choices for living style in this spacious home. Seller will also rent with one year lease.

Key facts

• Edgemont model home
• Remodeled
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EDGEMONT MODEL HOME
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BUMP OUT WINDOW
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• HARDWOOD SHINY FLOORS
• REMODELED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with clubhouse; Monthly association fee of $142; Association fee includes trash and snow removal; Association name: Crestwood Village 6

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Edgemont; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer; Dryer; Blinds/Shades; Light fixtures; Garage door opener
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-938/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $190k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,200 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,899
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -7.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-2%)	1mo	$205,000	$191	81
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$209	81
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.05mi	2/1.0	965 (-12%)	1mo	$168,000	$174	75
3 Amherst Rd #63	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,219 (+11%)	5mo	$250,000	$205	62
45 Beaver Ave	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	5mo	$79,900	$76	61
3 Badger Ct	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	2mo	$85,000	$74	59
40 Stonybrook Rd #62	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	3mo	$150,000	$149	55
9 Greenwood Ln #62	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (-8%)	1mo	$190,000	$188	54
3 Arbor St	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+9%)	3mo	$55,000	$46	53
1 Greenwood Ln Unit B	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,009 (-8%)	2mo	$252,000	$250	52
65A Sunset Rd #60	0.74mi	2/1.5	1,184 (+8%)	1mo	$227,500	$192	52
1104 Sycamore Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+13%)	2mo	$168,000	$135	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,637
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-36,983
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $178,588

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-13	+0% $-78	+5% $-144	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-147	+0% $-78	+5% $-9	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-30	base $-78	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	14d	1	0.62mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.63mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	12d	1	0.67mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.72mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	26d	1	1.07mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	18d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 584-char remark
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $189,900 Active 584-char remark
3. 2009-09-23
   soldstatus $72,000 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This is just what you've been waiting for with larger eat-in kitchen, open living/dining room, to the attached screened porch, extra half bath, larger lot and fabulous privacy. Double doors to second bedroom or den/office. Garage offers plenty of private storage. There are many choices for living style in this spacious home. Seller will also rent with one year lease.

4. 2009-06-09
   listed $88,500 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This is just what you've been waiting for with larger eat-in kitchen, open living/dining room, to the attached screened porch, extra half bath, larger lot and fabulous privacy. Double doors to second bedroom or den/office. Garage offers plenty of private storage. There are many choices for living style in this spacious home. Seller will also rent with one year lease.

5. 2008-12-06
   listed $88,850
6. 2008-05-23
   listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$985
• After-tax cash flow: $47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+89.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $189,900 MOMLS
• 2009-09-23 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MOMLS
• 2009-06-09 Listed $88,500 MOMLS
• 2008-12-06 Listed $88,850 MOMLS
• 2008-05-23 Listed $100,000 MOMLS