400 Rogers Rd · Hinesville, GA 31313

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1954 1.00 ac lot $167/sqft · 8% below area Est $175k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.2% in Hinesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.71%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,780
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -8.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Stewart Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (0%)	3mo	$185,000	$193	83
511 Fraser Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	960 (0%)	22mo	$118,000	$123	75
516 Stewart Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	13mo	$177,000	$177	70
601 Heritage Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+15%)	8mo	$229,900	$208	45
17 Sherwood Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	828 (-14%)	18mo	$182,000	$220	36
505 Lecounte St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,094 (+14%)	5mo	$198,500	$181	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,400
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $27,218
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,719/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $258	+0% $213	+5% $168	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $150	+0% $213	+5% $276	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $254	base $213	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Bagley Ave Unit B Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1071	$1,850	$1.73	45d	1	0.66mi
707 Thornwood Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.72mi
635 Maxwell St Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	45d	1	1.23mi
214 Honey Lane Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.5	984	$1,350	$1.37	45d	1	1.25mi
905 Olmstead Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,638	$1.64	45d	3	1.34mi
822 Lost Grove Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,650	$1.53	46d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-02-12
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,719
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$33
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $160,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,719 · +60.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.