803 Buckhorn Ct · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$279,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1989 0.75 ac lot $166/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Charm Awaits! Cozy 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Retreat with Cathedral Ceilings, Picture Windows, and a Spacious Front Deck to Soak in the Sunshine. Added Space to Entertain in Your Florida Room, Explore Your Private Backyard, and Keep Things Tidy in the Storage Shed. Plus, Off-Street Parking and Access to Year-Round Community Amenities for the Perfect Blend of Comfort and Country Living!''

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Fitness center
• Main-level sunroom

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• MAIN-LEVEL SUNROOM
• STORAGE SHED
• INDOOR POOL
• OUTDOOR POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Fawn Lake; Directions: From Fawn Lake entrance take Forest Ridge Dr ~0.9 miles, then left onto Buck Horn Ct after 0.3 miles; house on the right
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); Association amenities include clubhouse, indoor pool, outdoor pool, tennis courts, sport court, fitness center, recreation/party room, playground, lake access with fishing, and powered boats allowed; Association fee reported annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fire pit; Shed(s); Private, cleared and mostly level lot with few trees; Views; Located on a private maintained asphalt road; Waterfront on Fawn Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood and electric heating; Fireplace heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Vaulted and cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Ceiling fans; Living room fireplace; Daylight, finished full basement with interior and exterior entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,994 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,296
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Forest Ridge Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	724 (-6%)	15mo	$142,500	$197	74
143 Deer	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (-9%)	1mo	$85,000	$121	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $117,319
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $372,791
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$166
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,439

Max offer price $182,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-465	+0% $-544	+5% $-623	+10% $-702
Rent	-10% $-682	-5% $-613	+0% $-544	+5% $-475	+10% $-406
Rate	-1.0pp $-404	-0.5pp $-473	base $-544	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $166 · $1,992/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,175 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,117/yr (+$93/mo · 51.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$11,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1643.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $279,000 PWMLS
• 2024-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-09 Sold (MLS) $235,000 PWMLS
• 2024-06-26 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-05-31 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-04-17 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-04-11 Listed $239,000 PWMLS
• 2023-11-29 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2023-11-29 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-10-28 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-10-28 Delisted — PWMLS
• 2023-09-04 Listed $240,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-09-02 Listed $240,000 PWMLS
• 2022-04-18 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2021-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $186,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-03 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2021-08-03 Sold (MLS) $186,000 PWMLS
• 2021-08-03 Sold (MLS) $186,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-05-28 Listed $199,000 PWMLS
• 2021-05-28 Listed $199,000 PWMLS
• 2019-12-12 Listed $79,900 GLVRMLS
• 1988-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,175 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.