565 Main St · Lykens, PA 17048

$148,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1870 3,642 sqft lot Est $176k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Property That Was Completely REBUILT in 2003 After a Fire. Lovely High Ceilings, 2 Staircases, Security System, Large Closets, Large Rear Deck, Perfect for Entertaining. Oil Heat. This Home is a "Must See" & You Will Fall in Love!! Call for an Appointment.

Key facts

• Double vanity sink
• Kitchen layout
• French doors

Tags

• KITCHEN LAYOUT
• CENTER ISLAND
• FRENCH DOORS
• DECK
• WHIRLPOOL TUB
• DOUBLE VANITY SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#969 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Upper Dauphin Area SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #259 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Upper Dauphin Area Hs (math 77%, 343 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $311 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-712 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $148k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,500
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 S 2nd St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (+6%)	11mo	$205,000	$136	70
700 South St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,316 (-7%)	12mo	$165,000	$125	62
454 S 2nd St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	10mo	$174,900	$110	62
433 S 2nd St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (+13%)	7mo	$154,500	$97	58
618 Park View Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,296 (-8%)	15mo	$234,000	$181	57
312 Center St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,575 (+12%)	1mo	$228,100	$145	50
767 Main St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,603 (+14%)	10mo	$120,000	$75	50
519 S 2nd St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-12%)	23mo	$61,000	$49	48
312 Pottsville St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,410 (-0%)	23mo	$120,000	$85	46
822 Main St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,265 (-10%)	23mo	$175,000	$138	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,460
• Equity at exit: $39,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,378
• Equity at exit: $44,688

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17048

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $131,791

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Spruce St Lykens, PA	2.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	43d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $148,000
3. 2026-03-11
   price $150,000
4. 2026-03-06
   price $153,000
5. 2026-02-28
   price $155,500
6. 2026-02-24
   price $158,000
7. 2026-02-14
   status Active
8. 2026-02-08
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-29
   price $159,000
10. 2026-01-10
    listed $160,000 Active
11. 2021-10-15
    soldstatus $95,000
12. 2013-09-08
    historical
13. 2013-01-08
    listed $124,900
14. 2007-07-17
    soldstatus $130,000
15. 2007-07-15
    soldstatus $130,000 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Amazing Property That Was Completely REBUILT in 2003 After a Fire. Lovely High Ceilings, 2 Staircases, Security System, Large Closets, Large Rear Deck, Perfect for Entertaining. Oil Heat. This Home is a "Must See" & You Will Fall in Love!! Call for an Appointment.

16. 2007-06-02
    historical 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Amazing Property That Was Completely REBUILT in 2003 After a Fire. Lovely High Ceilings, 2 Staircases, Security System, Large Closets, Large Rear Deck, Perfect for Entertaining. Oil Heat. This Home is a "Must See" & You Will Fall in Love!! Call for an Appointment.

17. 2007-05-31
    listed $174,900 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Amazing Property That Was Completely REBUILT in 2003 After a Fire. Lovely High Ceilings, 2 Staircases, Security System, Large Closets, Large Rear Deck, Perfect for Entertaining. Oil Heat. This Home is a "Must See" & You Will Fall in Love!! Call for an Appointment.

18. 1999-06-29
    soldstatus $57,170

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,406
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$3,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$879
• After-tax cash flow: $-222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Dauphin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,201
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4012
• State rank: #259 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lykens

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #10571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lykens, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,801

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 241.7628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+158.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $148,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $155,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $158,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-01-08 Listed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-15 Sold (MLS) $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-06-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-05-31 Listed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $57,170 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,757 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.