101 Bal Hbr · Emerald Bay, TX 75757

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,931 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1975 $129/sqft · 38% below area Est $401k · 38% under $440/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice home in Emerald Bay on quiet cul de sac. Open floor plan to include a sun room! Two patios, one private and one open. Home is move in ready so you can begin to enjoy all the amenities of Emerald Bay. 24/7 guard gate, Pool, Lighted Tennis Courts, unlimited golf with no cart fees, green fees or trail fees, fishing, swimming and all on Lake Palestine!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• 24/7 security

Tags

• EMERALD BAY COMMUNITY
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SUNROOM
• 24/7 SECURITY
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Satellite dish; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $440 monthly fee; Gated community with golf, pool, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family detached home; Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum, brick, shingle, vinyl, and wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Lakefront on Lake Palestine; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Microwave; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Central vacuum; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-543/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,902 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,031
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -37.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 San Mateo Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,769 (-8%)	5mo	$239,000	$135	62
112 Bal Harbor Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-11%)	22mo	$315,000	$184	54
103 Holly Hill Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (-9%)	8mo	$245,000	$140	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-43,026
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,747
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$378 /mo · $4,534/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,826

Max offer price $241,902

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
291 N Bay Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	2324	$3,000	$1.29	13d	1	0.05mi
16584 Lakeway Cir Flint, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,050	$0.70	13d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $249,900 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-05-07
   listed $249,900 Active 448-char remark
9. 2021-09-29
   soldstatus
10. 2021-09-28
    soldstatus 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice home in Emerald Bay on quiet cul de sac. Open floor plan to include a sun room! Two patios, one private and one open. Home is move in ready so you can begin to enjoy all the amenities of Emerald Bay. 24/7 guard gate, Pool, Lighted Tennis Courts, unlimited golf with no cart fees, green fees or trail fees, fishing, swimming and all on Lake Palestine!

11. 2021-08-20
    listed $229,000 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice home in Emerald Bay on quiet cul de sac. Open floor plan to include a sun room! Two patios, one private and one open. Home is move in ready so you can begin to enjoy all the amenities of Emerald Bay. 24/7 guard gate, Pool, Lighted Tennis Courts, unlimited golf with no cart fees, green fees or trail fees, fishing, swimming and all on Lake Palestine!

12. 2020-01-23
    soldstatus
13. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Come see this wonderfully kept cozy two bedroom, two bath home in Emerald Bay. It has a very large kitchen with a semi open floor plan with a great room beyond the kitchen. The kitchen is in the middle of the home and we all know the nucleus to any home is the kitchen. This home would be great for any family gathering or entertaining friends. It has two patios that are open air. It is move in ready. You can move in and start enjoying the life that Emerald Bay has to offer. You can golf, swim, fish, play many different games and go to church all in one place. Hurry and make this home yours!!

14. 2019-12-20
    listed $169,000

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Come see this wonderfully kept cozy two bedroom, two bath home in Emerald Bay. It has a very large kitchen with a semi open floor plan with a great room beyond the kitchen. The kitchen is in the middle of the home and we all know the nucleus to any home is the kitchen. This home would be great for any family gathering or entertaining friends. It has two patios that are open air. It is move in ready. You can move in and start enjoying the life that Emerald Bay has to offer. You can golf, swim, fish, play many different games and go to church all in one place. Hurry and make this home yours!!

15. 2006-08-30
    soldstatus
16. 1998-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,534 · $378/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,534
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $249,900 GTAR
• 2021-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-28 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-08-20 Listed $229,000 GTAR
• 2020-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2019-12-20 Listed $169,000 GTAR
• 2006-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,534 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.