27891 County Highway X · Portland, WI 54619

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 1900 3.19 ac lot $151/sqft · 86% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer to verify all measurements

Key facts

• 3.19 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (35.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (44.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cashton School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #191 of 342 in WI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,722 (44.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.49%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,404,933
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -85.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $83,641
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $266,049
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54619

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,609

Max offer price $130,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-283	-5% $-340	+0% $-396	+5% $-453	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-440	+0% $-396	+5% $-352	+10% $-309
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-345	base $-396	+0.5pp $-448	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 177 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 176 DOM
17. 2025-12-06
    listed $200,000 Active 32-char remark

    Show marketing remark (32 chars)

    Buyer to verify all measurements

18. 2015-04-01
    historical 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    NESTLED IN THE LARGE PINES IS THIS AFFORDABLE 3.19 ACRE HOBBY FARM. SELLER STATES ONLY 25 MIN FROM VALLEY VIEW MALL. HOME OFFERS HARDWOOD FLOORS IN THE LIVING ROOM AND DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM, CEDAR CLOSETS IN UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS, MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY, 2 CAR GARAGE, AND OUTBUILDINGS. SOME TLC NEEDED BUT SELLER GOT YOU STARTED WITH A NEW FURNACE IN 2012. BRING YOUR DREAMS AND COME OUT AND TAKE A LOOK.

19. 2015-01-21
    price $85,900 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    NESTLED IN THE LARGE PINES IS THIS AFFORDABLE 3.19 ACRE HOBBY FARM. SELLER STATES ONLY 25 MIN FROM VALLEY VIEW MALL. HOME OFFERS HARDWOOD FLOORS IN THE LIVING ROOM AND DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM, CEDAR CLOSETS IN UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS, MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY, 2 CAR GARAGE, AND OUTBUILDINGS. SOME TLC NEEDED BUT SELLER GOT YOU STARTED WITH A NEW FURNACE IN 2012. BRING YOUR DREAMS AND COME OUT AND TAKE A LOOK.

20. 2014-10-10
    listed $89,900 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    NESTLED IN THE LARGE PINES IS THIS AFFORDABLE 3.19 ACRE HOBBY FARM. SELLER STATES ONLY 25 MIN FROM VALLEY VIEW MALL. HOME OFFERS HARDWOOD FLOORS IN THE LIVING ROOM AND DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM, CEDAR CLOSETS IN UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS, MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY, 2 CAR GARAGE, AND OUTBUILDINGS. SOME TLC NEEDED BUT SELLER GOT YOU STARTED WITH A NEW FURNACE IN 2012. BRING YOUR DREAMS AND COME OUT AND TAKE A LOOK.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,682 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 61.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$8,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,046
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cashton School District
• NCES district ID: 5502340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,680
• Composite: 32.66/100
• National rank: #5660
• State rank: #191 of 342 in WI

Livability — Portland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,842

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,682 people
• By 2030: 45,187 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 43,768 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 41,596 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 35,555 · -22.2%
• By 2100: 28,278 · -38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Polish 13% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · German/W. Germanic 16% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.1) · D 36.3% · R 62.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: -26.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.1 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+22.5 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 141.97%
• Current HPI: 352.72
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+122.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-06 Listed $200,000 SCWMLS
• 2015-04-01 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2015-01-21 Price Changed $85,900 METROMLS
• 2014-10-10 Listed $89,900 METROMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.