3 Winthrop Way · Boswell's Corner, VA 22554

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 1,440 sqft lot $97/sqft · at area comps Est $137k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled home in the desirable Hidden Valley community in Stafford County (22554). This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home was thoughtfully updated in 2024, offering modern finishes while maintaining a warm and inviting feel. Step inside to discover refreshed living spaces designed for comfort and functionality. The recent remodel brings updated features that today’s buyers are looking for, making this home truly move-in ready. The spacious layout provides comfortable living areas and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, outdoor gatherings, or simply relaxing in your private outdoor spac

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Updated features
• New roof

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED FEATURES
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis; Income/expense note: Annual ground rent listed
• Financial info: Land lease: $750 per month; Ground rent paid annually; Additional parcels noted (shed)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 4 vehicles (total of 4 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Community water; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide; Estimated year of construction/major remodel: 2024; Land lease ownership (monthly land lease of $750; 100 years remaining); Ground rent exists (annual payment; 100 years remaining); Located in city limits; Park: Hidden Valley
• Construction: Combination construction materials; Shingle roof; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Fully fenced; Community pool; Shed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; Two or more access exits; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.62%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,755
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Robert St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	0mo	$142,900	$95	87
20 Maryanne Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	8mo	$95,000	$68	82
14 Robert St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	2mo	$90,000	$69	77
19 Tracey	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-1%)	23mo	$135,000	$95	74
27 Castle Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-5%)	15mo	$132,000	$96	71
22 Tracey St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	18mo	$100,000	$81	56
41 Courage Ln	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+11%)	2mo	$104,000	$65	54
7 Bloomington Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,419 (-2%)	14mo	$510,000	$359	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $36,653
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $96,658
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22554

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $1,000

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,097	-5% $1,049	+0% $1,000	+5% $952	+10% $904
Rent	-10% $804	-5% $902	+0% $1,000	+5% $1,099	+10% $1,197
Rate	-1.0pp $1,071	-0.5pp $1,036	base $1,000	+0.5pp $964	+1.0pp $927

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Hillside Ct Stafford, VA	3.0	3.5	1634	$2,800	$1.71	44d	1	0.64mi
105 Brenwick Ct Stafford, VA	4.0	3.5	1675	$2,600	$1.55	44d	1	0.78mi
703 Kings Crest Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,100	$1.64	44d	1	0.81mi
707 Kings Crest Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	3.5	1830	$2,400	$1.31	19d	1	0.81mi
106 Wind Ridge Dr Stafford, VA	2.0	1.5	902	$1,700	$1.88	21d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $140,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract 1222-char remark
5. 2026-05-06
   price $145,000 1222-char remark
6. 2026-03-11
   listed $160,000 Active 1222-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,391
• − Management: −$2,391
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $10,393
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,494
• After-tax cash flow: $9,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled home in Hidden Valley offers modern finishes and a move-in ready condition, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and patio maintenance — Improves outdoor living space and enhances curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and patio maintenance — Improves outdoor living space and enhances curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Boswell's Corner

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Boswell's Corner, VA
• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 65,494
• Household income: $151,480
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 781.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.68%
• Current HPI: 280.621
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS