10049 Centre St · Warrington, FL 32506

$265,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1994 7,644 sqft lot $169/sqft · 9% below area Est $268k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brick home sits on a cul-de-sac in Woodridge Manor that is conveniently located near the bases, beaches, boat launches, and shopping. Great room has wood laminate flooring, high ceilings, and a fireplace. The quiet and peaceful privacy fenced backyard has an open patio, and backs up to a greenbelt. The eat-in kitchen includes lots of windows for light and the greenbelt view with a pantry, and stainless range. The Master suite has two walk-in closets, a trey ceiling, and garden tub/shower. Other features; laundry room, HVAC 2022, roof 2021, gas hot water heater 2013.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Open patio
• Stainless range

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN PATIO
• GREENBELT VIEW
• PANTRY
• STAINLESS RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road maintained by county; Directions: Dog Track to Silver Creek, left on Bridge Creek, left on Creek Ridge, right on Centre into cul de sac, house on left.
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 covered/garage space; 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Copper electrical wiring
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 1,450 square feet
• Exterior features: Back yard with privacy fencing; Patio; Porch; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with pantry; Stainless range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 15); Second bedroom on first floor (approx. 10.8 x 12); Third bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10.8)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Natural gas heating; Fireplace
• Interior features: High ceilings; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($7/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,599 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,184
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -1.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5076 Cassia Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+1%)	2mo	$265,000	$167	73
10660 Creek Ridge Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-8%)	3mo	$269,900	$187	73
10703 Brook Bend Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+1%)	7mo	$290,000	$182	72
9049 Bluebay Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,797 (+14%)	7mo	$300,000	$167	62
5013 Cassia Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-6%)	4mo	$215,000	$146	61
1621 Ora Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-1%)	9mo	$295,000	$189	52
10429 Tanton Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+8%)	8mo	$339,900	$200	46
1345 Heatherwood Cir	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,416 (-10%)	6mo	$240,000	$169	44
1442 Little Creek Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	5mo	$255,000	$147	42
11663 Aruba Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+12%)	7mo	$305,000	$174	40
10730 Willow Lake Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,369 (-13%)	10mo	$222,500	$163	33
10844 Trailblazer Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+14%)	9mo	$322,100	$181	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,266
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-29,042
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10557 Queens Gate Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,250	$1.26	13d	1	0.59mi
841 Oak Aly Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1875	$1,995	$1.06	13d	1	0.80mi
609 Dog Track Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1697	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.90mi
892 Miramar Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,000	$1.29	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $265,000 Active 577-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,002/yr (+$83/mo · 83.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $265,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.