19 Southwind Cir · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 992 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brand new, 2 bedroom home is available for sale! Call the office to schedule a tour.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 128 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.87%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,947
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,586
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-02-10
    listed $225,000 Active 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    This brand new, 2 bedroom home is available for sale! Call the office to schedule a tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,583
• − Management: −$2,583
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $3,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$834
• After-tax cash flow: $6,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new, 2-bedroom home is move-in ready with good condition and minimal maintenance required. Upgrades in paint, kitchen, and landscaping would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts more buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves energy efficiency and adds value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves energy efficiency and adds value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $225,000 Zillow