1501 SW Baker St #11 · McMinnville, OR 97128

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · Manufactured public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $132k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready home in desirable Southwest Terrace, a 55+ community just minutes from downtown. Conveniently located within walking distance to grocery stores, restaurants, and more. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1008 sq ft home features a durable metal roof, new windows, newer heat pump, and updated electrical panel. Enjoy easy living in a well-maintained home in a prime location close to all amenities.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer heat pump
• Prime location

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEWER HEAT PUMP
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.2% in McMinnville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#79 in OR, #3,556 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: commute D+.
• Mcminnville SD 40 (town): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #20 of 183 in OR (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sue Buel Elementary (416 students, 69% FRL); Duniway Middle School (806 students, 66% FRL); Mcminnville High School (2,319 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 390 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 282 units permitted in Yamhill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yamhill County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $80k implies a 965% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.60%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,310
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1501 SW Baker St #15	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-8%)	12mo	$74,900	$81	71
1145 SW Cypress St #76	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,069 (+6%)	22mo	$140,000	$131	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $50,011
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $113,419
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97128

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $341/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $1,055

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,100	-5% $1,078	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,033	+10% $1,010
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $978	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,132	+10% $1,209
Rate	-1.0pp $1,095	-0.5pp $1,075	base $1,055	+0.5pp $1,034	+1.0pp $1,013

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 SW Cozine Ln McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	740	$1,195	$1.61	2d	1	0.19mi
1149 SW Brockwood Ave McMinnville, OR	3.0	2.0	1432	$3,600	$2.51	24d	1	0.28mi
727 SW Drumwood Ave Unit 13 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	8d	1	0.53mi
727 SW Drumwood Ave Unit 2 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,525	$1.69	44d	1	0.53mi
550 SW Edmunston St Apt 14 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,449	$1.81	2d	1	0.55mi
1647 SW Fellows St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	820	$1,495	$1.82	2d	5	0.58mi
624 SW Drumwood Ave McMinnville, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	878	$2,400	$2.73	2d	4	0.58mi
410 SE Debbie St Unit WES410 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	998	$1,895	$1.90	44d	1	0.70mi
1794 SW Fellows St Unit 1764-58 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,350	$1.59	24d	1	0.72mi
1794 SW Fellows St Unit 1802-40 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,350	$1.59	44d	1	0.72mi
404 SW Elmwood Ave Unit 404 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	44d	1	0.74mi
981 SE Ford St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	2d	1	0.83mi
136 SW Sharon Jane Pl McMinnville, OR	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,150	$1.46	22d	1	0.83mi
855 SE Ford St McMinnville, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,475	$2.03	2d	7	0.87mi
1126 SE Rummel St Unit 1128 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,795	$1.68	17d	1	0.88mi
982 SW Hawthorne St McMinnville, OR	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,375	$1.63	22d	1	0.90mi
1910 SW Old Sheridan Rd McMinnville, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,585	$1.73	2d	1	0.90mi
725 SE Ford St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,425	$1.84	2d	1	0.92mi
711 SE Ford St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	864	$1,690	$1.96	2d	1	0.94mi
1355 NW 2nd St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.5	840	$1,622	$1.93	2d	3	0.99mi
1795 NW 2nd St McMinnville, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	1250	$2,250	$1.80	2d	2	1.02mi
230 SE Evans St Unit 06 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	44d	1	1.02mi
230 SE Evans St Unit 22 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	44d	1	1.02mi
230 SE Evans St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	2d	1	1.02mi
603 NW Beary St Unit 605 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	864	$1,695	$1.96	21d	1	1.05mi
467 NW Meadows Dr McMinnville, OR	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,100	$1.64	44d	1	1.16mi
605 NW Adams St McMinnville, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	855	$1,750	$2.05	2d	2	1.17mi
1025 NE 1st St Unit 8 McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	940	$1,695	$1.80	44d	1	1.31mi
700 NW 12th St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	18d	1	1.33mi
1031 NE Cowls St McMinnville, OR	2.0	1.5	900	$1,550	$1.72	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-08
   price $79,900
3. 2025-08-25
   listed $84,900 Active
4. 2004-02-28
   soldstatus $7,500
5. 2004-02-13
   historical
6. 2003-12-07
   listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $341 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$434/yr (+$36/mo · 127.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$341
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $12,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,894
• After-tax cash flow: $9,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcminnville SD 40
• NCES district ID: 4108010
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,382
• Composite: 47.69/100
• National rank: #4919
• State rank: #20 of 183 in OR

Livability — McMinnville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3556

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McMinnville, OR
• County: Yamhill County · 71,150 people
• City population: 38,664
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,664
• Household income: $75,896
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1508.0

Population outlook (Yamhill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,295 people
• By 2030: 112,060 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 115,975 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 118,155 · +8.1%
• By 2075: 120,968 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 116,163 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yamhill

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 45.3% · R 51.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+4.0 2016: R+8.8 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.59%
• Current HPI: 320.373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+432.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $79,900 RMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $84,900 RMLS
• 2004-02-28 Sold (MLS) $7,500 RMLS
• 2004-02-13 Delisted — RMLS
• 2003-12-07 Listed $15,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $341 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.