215 Scammell Dr · Browns Mills, NJ 08015

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 863 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1974 9,600 sqft lot $266/sqft · 17% below area Est $278k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get your tools ready! 3 bedroom and 1 bath home ready for a new vision. Fully fenced in backyard.

Key facts

• 9,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 41 days

Tags

• FULLY FENCED IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.2% in Browns Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#436 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $230k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,006
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -17.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Scammell Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0	883 (+2%)	4mo	$290,000	$328	92
204 Scammell Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	863 (0%)	5mo	$255,000	$295	87
612 Weymouth Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	863 (0%)	10mo	$275,000	$319	84
15 Coville Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	863 (0%)	10mo	$275,000	$319	84
3394 Liberty St	0.21mi	3/2.0	900 (+4%)	5mo	$111,500	$124	75
511 Laurel Blvd	0.27mi	3/1.5	921 (+7%)	6mo	$275,000	$299	69
3449 New Moon St	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-7%)	1mo	$45,000	$56	65
610 Berkeley Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	972 (+13%)	11mo	$313,000	$322	63
3361 Liberty St	0.21mi	3/2.0	924 (+7%)	15mo	$124,000	$134	62
14 Rancocas Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	864 (+0%)	13mo	$265,000	$307	54
3620 Weymouth Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-7%)	1mo	$138,000	$173	53
16 Rancocas Ln	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	816 (-5%)	10mo	$310,000	$380	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,478
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,340
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08015

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,416/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Coville Dr Browns Mills, NJ	4.0	1.0	863	$2,400	$2.78	15d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $229,900 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   Get your tools ready! 3 bedroom and 1 bath home ready for a new vision. Fully fenced in backyard.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $229,900 99-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   Get your tools ready! 3 bedroom and 1 bath home ready for a new vision. Fully fenced in backyard.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $244,900 Active 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   Get your tools ready! 3 bedroom and 1 bath home ready for a new vision. Fully fenced in backyard.

4. 2026-04-08
   listed $244,900 Active 99-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   Get your tools ready! 3 bedroom and 1 bath home ready for a new vision. Fully fenced in backyard.

5. 2005-08-05
   soldstatus $143,000
6. 2005-06-15
   soldstatus $135,000
7. 2003-08-26
   soldstatus $64,900
8. 1978-02-01
   soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,416 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,570 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,154/yr (+$96/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,416
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $61
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Browns Mills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #15864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Browns Mills, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 19,143

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.84%
• Current HPI: 329.1731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+838.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $229,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $244,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $244,900 MOMLS
• 2005-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 1978-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,416 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.