3923 S 1975 W #15 · Roy, UT 84067

$38,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 1971 435 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There are no remarks available.

Key facts

• Open space
• Near shopping
• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OPEN SPACE
• NEAR BUS LINES
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR LIBRARY
• NEAR PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in UT, #1,449 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Weber District (suburban): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #56 of 80 in UT (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Park School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #419 of 585 statewide, top 72%, 467 students, 50% FRL); Sand Ridge Jr High (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #119 of 138 statewide, top 87%, 857 students, 40% FRL); Roy High (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #131 of 171 statewide, top 79%, 1,834 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,630 units permitted in Weber County in 2024 (521 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weber County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $35,720 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.16%
• DSCR: 5.81
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $50,416
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.88×
• Total profit: $105,135
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84067

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $985	-5% $972	+0% $959	+5% $946	+10% $933
Rent	-10% $837	-5% $898	+0% $959	+5% $1,020	+10% $1,081
Rate	-1.0pp $978	-0.5pp $969	base $959	+0.5pp $949	+1.0pp $939

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2405 Hinckley Dr Unit L203 West Haven, UT	2.0	2.0	988	$1,416	$1.43	24d	1	0.52mi
4449 S 1900 W Unit 4 Roy, UT	2.0	1.0	900	$999	$1.11	24d	1	0.66mi
3560 Midland Dr West Haven, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,437	$1.54	15d	22	0.72mi
4499 S 1930 W Roy, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1106	$1,930	$1.75	15d	11	0.74mi
3330 S Midland Dr West Haven, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	15d	3	0.85mi
3405 S 2400 W West Haven, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,525	$1.56	24d	5	0.86mi
2002 W 4700 S Apt 2 Roy, UT	2.0	1.0	837	$1,185	$1.42	24d	1	0.95mi
2112 W 3300 S West Haven, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,686	$1.73	15d	15	0.98mi
90 West Roy, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,445	$1.34	15d	11	1.02mi
4389 S Locomotive DR Roy, UT	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1651	$1,930	$1.17	15d	48	1.06mi
2914 W 3885 S West Haven, UT	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,395	$1.66	24d	1	1.15mi
1775 W 4800 S Roy, UT	1.0–2.0	1.0	770	$1,250	$1.62	15d	4	1.21mi
1184 W 4400 S Riverdale, UT	2.0	1.0	864	$1,299	$1.50	15d	3	1.21mi
4372 S 1000 W Unit A Riverdale, UT	3.0	1.5	1375	$1,725	$1.25	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-03-03
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-01-12
   price $38,000
3. 2025-01-01
   listed $42,000 Active
4. 2023-01-31
   soldstatus Closed 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

5. 2023-01-27
   status Under Contract 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

6. 2022-12-16
   price $36,000 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

7. 2022-09-29
   price $49,900 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

8. 2022-09-22
   listed $57,000 Active 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

9. 2019-03-06
   soldstatus Sold 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

10. 2019-02-26
    status Under Contract 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

11. 2019-02-04
    listed $30,000 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $11,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,782
• After-tax cash flow: $8,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weber District
• NCES district ID: 4901200
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,750
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5757
• State rank: #56 of 80 in UT

Livability — Roy

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roy, UT
• County: Weber County · 260,557 people
• City population: 38,794
• Metro: Ogden-Clearfield, UT
• Population (ZIP): 38,794
• Household income: $91,115
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Weber County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 274,329 people
• By 2030: 288,577 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 314,848 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 338,710 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 384,412 · +40.1%
• By 2100: 409,305 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weber

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 36.8% · R 60.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -27.6pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.84%
• Current HPI: 323.642
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Ogden-Clearfield, UT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

+26.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-03 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2025-01-12 Price Changed $38,000 WFRMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $42,000 WFRMLS
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2023-01-27 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2022-12-16 Price Changed $36,000 WFRMLS
• 2022-09-29 Price Changed $49,900 WFRMLS
• 2022-09-22 Listed $57,000 WFRMLS
• 2019-03-06 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2019-02-26 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2019-02-04 Listed $30,000 WFRMLS