2517 Lincoln St · Gary, IN 46407

$49,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1949 3,049 sqft lot $73/sqft · 57% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good investment opportunity. Property needs almost complete remodeling. Good location and would make a great rehab property or even a rental to add to a portfolio. Main floor is decent. House has vinyl siding and windows and the roof appears to be in decent shape as well. Main source of work needed is in the basement which is a partial walkout.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,080/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 392% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $834 of equity ($345 loan paydown + $489 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.44%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $31,780
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 57.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2645 Lincoln St	0.11mi	2/1.0	732 (+8%)	10mo	$75,000	$102	72
2401 Fillmore St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	716 (+5%)	5mo	$35,000	$49	68
1678 W 21st Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	672 (-1%)	1mo	$60,000	$89	67
2678 Monroe St	0.61mi	2/1.0	700 (+3%)	2mo	$86,000	$123	63
2379 Jackson St	0.57mi	2/1.0	672 (-1%)	11mo	$12,000	$18	60
2472 Polk St	0.24mi	2/2.0	770 (+13%)	14mo	$10,000	$13	54
2636 Jackson St	0.54mi	2/1.0	648 (-5%)	15mo	$30,000	$46	53
2452 Jackson St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (+3%)	17mo	$32,500	$46	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $34,584
• Equity at exit: $16,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $82,831
• Equity at exit: $22,527

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46407

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $411

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
837 W 27th Ave Unit B Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	1d	1	0.44mi
837 W 27th Ave Unit A Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	1d	1	0.44mi
2572-76 Van Buren Pl Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	1d	1	0.48mi
2378 Jackson St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	672	$1,050	$1.56	1d	1	0.55mi
1015 W 35th Ave Apt 206 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	601	$795	$1.32	43d	1	1.29mi
1005 W 35th Ave Apt 202 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	617	$795	$1.29	1d	1	1.30mi
1005 W 35th Ave Apt 105 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	601	$795	$1.32	18d	1	1.30mi
2453 Prospect St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	704	$1,095	$1.56	1d	1	1.36mi
2355 Rhode Island St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	701	$1,095	$1.56	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $49,900 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Good investment opportunity. Property needs almost complete remodeling. Good location and would make a great rehab property or even a rental to add to a portfolio. Main floor is decent. House has vinyl siding and windows and the roof appears to be in decent shape as well. Main source of work needed is in the basement which is a partial walkout.

16. 2014-02-04
    historical
17. 2013-07-15
    listed $14,900
18. 2013-05-26
    historical
19. 2012-11-27
    listed $14,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $4,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 8,577
• Household income: $28,526
• Rent vs Own: 58.8% rent · 41.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 392.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 253.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+234.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $49,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-04 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-15 Listed $14,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-26 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-27 Listed $14,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-10.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $504 · +71.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.