1527 Shimmering Ocean Way · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$298,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,359 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION! The Caden is a beautifully designed one-story home offering 1,595 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Upon entry, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a shared bathroom, perfect for guests or family. The heart of the home is an open-concept layout with a modern kitchen, including a pantry, large island, and adjacent dining area. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the expansive family room, ideal for entertaining. A covered patio offering a relaxing outdoor space. The primary suite is located at the back of the home and includes a luxurious ensuite with dual vanities, an oversized shower or optional soaking

Key facts

• Full yard irrigation
• Covered patio
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• FULL YARD IRRIGATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Caldwell Crossing HOA with annual fee of $900; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Leased security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; Brick and cement siding construction; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $298,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,740.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,079 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,740
• List price: $298,490
• Delta: -6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1511 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,595 (0%)	1mo	$299,990	$188	97
1222 Sandy Shore Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,595 (0%)	2mo	$309,990	$194	94
9118 Sunset Marina Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,595 (0%)	3mo	$309,490	$194	93
9015 Rose Water Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,595 (0%)	1mo	$309,490	$194	89
9203 Waldrick Trace Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+2%)	0mo	$275,000	$168	78
9011 Serene Hvn	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-12%)	1mo	$288,490	$204	75
9115 Serene Hvn	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-12%)	2mo	$296,490	$210	74
9130 Sunset Marina Way	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+12%)	2mo	$334,990	$188	69
9134 Sunset Marina Way	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,831 (+15%)	2mo	$311,990	$170	62
1827 Garnet Breeze Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-13%)	2mo	$235,000	$169	54
9438 Gold Mountain Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-13%)	1mo	$229,000	$164	52
1802 Opal Peach Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-13%)	2mo	$240,000	$172	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-80,560
• Equity at exit: $47,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-122,943
• Equity at exit: $27,645

Cash invested: $89,527 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,677
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,796/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $268,164

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,935
• Closing costs: $9,592
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	44d	1	0.49mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.50mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	13d	1	0.58mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	0.89mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	22d	1	0.90mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	44d	1	0.98mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	44d	1	1.01mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	17d	1	1.07mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.12mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	44d	1	1.26mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	1d	21	1.30mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	44d	7	1.36mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	1d	6	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $298,490 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,490 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,490 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,490 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,490 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,490 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,490 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $298,490 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $298,490 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,490 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,490 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,490 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $298,490 991-char remark
14. 2026-05-13
    price $298,490 1351-char remark
15. 2026-05-07
    price $298,990 1351-char remark
16. 2026-05-05
    price $298,990 991-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $299,490 Active 991-char remark
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $299,490 Active 1351-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,910
• − Property taxes: −$4,796
• − Insurance: −$1,599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,302
• Taxable loss: −$9,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This newly constructed home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $298,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $298,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $299,490 HARMLS