Burnet Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$339,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,199 sqft · SingleFamily · 372 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to the Burnet Floor Plan! Find the perfect blend of comfort and functionality with the Burnet in Lago Mar. This spacious single-story home offers four bedrooms, three bathrooms, and a two-car garage across 2,199 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space - ideal for families who love open, connected living areas. Just off the foyer, you'll find two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom, each featuring plush carpet flooring, tall closets, and bright windows that fill the rooms with natural light. A third secondary bedroom with its own private full bathroom is tucked nearby, offering the perfect retreat for guests or family members seeking privacy.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Open concept kitchen
• Bright windows

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• BRIGHT WINDOWS
• DUAL SINKS
• GENEROUS WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $403,096.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-734 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 372 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,692 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 372 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,096
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -15.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13124 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+1%)	1mo	$332,990	$149	86
14005 Baikal Manor Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-0%)	2mo	$354,990	$162	79
14021 Baikal Manor Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-0%)	2mo	$334,990	$153	78
13123 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-5%)	1mo	$317,990	$153	76
13717 Blue Breaker Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,188 (-0%)	0mo	$380,900	$174	75
13913 Baikal Manor Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,144 (-2%)	2mo	$339,990	$159	72
14315 Freeboard Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,198 (-0%)	0mo	$349,900	$159	66
2901 Fair Wind Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,160 (-2%)	1mo	$380,000	$176	66
3014 Mariner Island Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-13%)	2mo	$305,990	$159	61
2401 Village Azalea Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	0mo	$299,900	$149	60
2909 Fair Wind Ln	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,415 (+10%)	0mo	$411,900	$171	54
13921 Baikal Manor Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-15%)	1mo	$329,990	$176	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-109,532
• Equity at exit: $60,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-144,945
• Equity at exit: $34,852

Cash invested: $112,867 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 283 active · 124 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,990 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,114
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$504 /mo · $6,046/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,526

Max offer price $296,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-456	-5% $-595	+0% $-734	+5% $-873	+10% $-1,013
Rent	-10% $-939	-5% $-837	+0% $-734	+5% $-632	+10% $-529
Rate	-1.0pp $-531	-0.5pp $-632	base $-734	+0.5pp $-839	+1.0pp $-945

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,774
• Closing costs: $12,093
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.49mi
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	109d	1	0.52mi
13017 Oleander Bay Ln Texas City, TX	5.0	3.5	2959	$2,850	$0.96	5d	1	0.52mi
3114 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$3,000	$1.33	0d	1	0.60mi
13322 Sea Breeze Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	2051	$2,595	$1.27	34d	1	0.60mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	0.72mi
2602 Arbor Edge Xing Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,700	$1.23	0d	1	0.77mi
13025 Dancing Reed Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,695	$1.28	43d	1	0.89mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	134d	1	0.94mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	163d	1	0.98mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.5	1832	$2,650	$1.45	0d	1	1.00mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.05mi
612 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,189	$1.19	9d	1	1.08mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	104d	1	1.09mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,159	$1.17	50d	1	1.10mi
333 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,209	$1.20	91d	1	1.10mi
628 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	91d	1	1.11mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,118	$1.97	0d	8	1.11mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	99d	1	1.13mi
2119 Del Mar Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.5	2259	$2,395	$1.06	41d	1	1.14mi
301 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,229	$1.04	69d	1	1.16mi
12318 Wavecrest Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	78d	1	1.17mi
520 Red Dusk Paint Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,249	$1.05	80d	1	1.18mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	119d	1	1.20mi
801 Painted Bison Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,969	$1.39	86d	1	1.20mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1774	$2,211	$1.25	0d	1	1.22mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	78d	1	1.22mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	121d	1	1.24mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	146d	1	1.25mi
336 Comanche Plains Rd La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,789	$1.25	50d	1	1.26mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	108d	1	1.29mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	102d	1	1.33mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	152d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13313 Golden Isle Dr, Texas City, TX 77568Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $359,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Plan: Burnet)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,199 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Burnet (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $339,990 Active 372 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $339,990 Active 371 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $339,990 Active 370 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $339,990 Active 369 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $339,990 Active 368 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $339,990 Active 366 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $339,990 Active 365 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $339,990 Active 364 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $339,990 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $339,990 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $339,990 Active 361 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $339,990 Active 360 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 359 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 358 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 357 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $339,990 Active 356 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $339,990 Active 355 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $339,990 Active 354 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $339,990 Active 353 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $339,990 Active 352 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $339,990 Active 351 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    pricedays on marketlisting id $339,990 Active 350 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $359,990 Active 81 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 80 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $359,990 Active 79 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $359,990 Active 78 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 77 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $359,990 Active 76 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $359,990 Active 75 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 74 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 73 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 72 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 71 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 70 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 69 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 68 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 67 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 66 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 65 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $359,990 Active 64 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $359,990 Active 63 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $359,990 Active 62 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 61 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $359,990 Active 60 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $359,990 Active 59 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $359,990 Active 58 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 57 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 56 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 55 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $359,990 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,580
• − Property taxes: −$6,046
• − Insurance: −$2,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − Depreciation: −$11,726
• Taxable loss: −$16,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,886
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Burnet floor plan home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to modern buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13313 Golden Isle Dr, Texas City, TX 77568Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $359,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Plan: Burnet)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,199 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Burnet (new construction plan)