4572 SW 158th Street Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$194,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1977 0.76 ac lot Est $307k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CHECK OUT THIS Rare opportunity to own a charming SFH situated on an oversized . 76-acre lot with endless potential. Whether you’re looking for the perfect place to call home or a great investment opportunity, this property offers the ideal mix of space, privacy, and convenience. Enjoy plenty of room for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities, all while being conveniently located near grocery stores, medical centers, golf courses, and offering easy access to I-75 for an easy commute.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• Easy access to i-75
• Outdoor living

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single-family; Zoning: R1; Lot size about 0.76 acres (approximately 1/2 to <1 acre)
• Financial info: Tax year 2025 (annual taxes reported)
• HOA & community: No association reported; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Other-type roof; Slab foundation; Built as completed (existing)
• Exterior features: Dog run; Private in-ground pool; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $194k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,090 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4510 SW 159th Street Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,910 (+5%)	0mo	$350,000	$183	83
15740 SW 55th Avenue Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-1%)	2mo	$304,000	$168	81
15712 SW 37th Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,822 (-0%)	2mo	$287,000	$158	69
5261 SW 157th St	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,833 (+0%)	6mo	$300,000	$164	59
4565 SW 161st St	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,026 (+11%)	4mo	$275,536	$136	56
470 Marion Oaks Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,865 (+2%)	10mo	$323,000	$173	54
16378 SW 50th Terrace Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (-1%)	7mo	$294,990	$163	53
6432 SW 151st St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+0%)	14mo	$280,000	$153	49
15949 SW 55th Avenue Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-8%)	1mo	$297,500	$178	47
16228 SW 44th Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (-12%)	12mo	$305,000	$190	44
4454 SW 151st St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (+10%)	3mo	$290,000	$145	42
4436 SW 150th Pl	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,643 (-10%)	9mo	$295,000	$180	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,044
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,265
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,675/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $355	+0% $300	+5% $245	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $223	+0% $300	+5% $377	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $350	base $300	+0.5pp $250	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	22d	1	0.11mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	14d	1	0.35mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	14d	1	0.36mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	22d	1	0.37mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.39mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.41mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.53mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	22d	1	0.53mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.54mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	14d	1	0.58mi
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	22d	1	0.59mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.59mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	0.60mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	14d	1	0.64mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	14d	1	0.69mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	22d	1	0.71mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	14d	1	0.72mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	14d	1	0.80mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	22d	1	0.80mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	14d	1	0.81mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	22d	1	0.82mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	0.84mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.86mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	0.89mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	14d	1	0.90mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	14d	1	0.91mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	0.93mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	22d	1	1.00mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	14d	1	1.01mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	14d	1	1.02mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	1.03mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	14d	1	1.06mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	22d	1	1.06mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	14d	1	1.08mi
4473 SW 168th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,000	$1.11	14d	1	1.09mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	14d	1	1.12mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	22d	1	1.16mi
4513 SW 170th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	1.22mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	1.26mi
17000 SW 41st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $194,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $199,000 Active
18. 2002-03-29
    soldstatus $100,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,675
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$113
• After-tax cash flow: $3,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+98.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,675 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.