239 Deer Run Dr · Hawley, PA 18428

$389,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

5.72 ac lot $191/sqft · 17% below area Est $470k · 17% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled home on nearly 6 acres in a peaceful rural setting. Rare opportunity to enjoy privacy while being just minutes from grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday amenities. Features 3 bedrooms, 3 updated bathrooms, and a large garage with space for boats or jet skis. Newer furnace and tankless water heater make this home truly turn key.

Key facts

• Large garage
• Updated bathrooms
• Nearly 6 acres

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEARLY 6 ACRES
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• LARGE GARAGE
• SPACE FOR BOATS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.0% in Hawley — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#898 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack North Intrmd Sch (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #733 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 471 students, 63% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,646 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.52%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $470,408
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -17.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
239 Deer Run Dr	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,039 (0%)	0mo	$390,000	$191	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $145,680
• Equity at exit: $351,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $481,578
• Equity at exit: $757,490

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-1,048

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,453

Max offer price $238,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-778	-5% $-913	+0% $-1,048	+5% $-1,182	+10% $-1,317
Rent	-10% $-1,216	-5% $-1,132	+0% $-1,048	+5% $-964	+10% $-880
Rate	-1.0pp $-851	-0.5pp $-948	base $-1,048	+0.5pp $-1,149	+1.0pp $-1,251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully remodeled home on nearly 6 acres in a peaceful rural setting. Rare opportunity to enjoy privacy while being just minutes from grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday amenities. Features 3 bedrooms, 3 updated bathrooms, and a large garage with space for boats or jet skis. Newer furnace and tankless water heater make this home truly turn key.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $389,900 Active 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully remodeled home on nearly 6 acres in a peaceful rural setting. Rare opportunity to enjoy privacy while being just minutes from grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday amenities. Features 3 bedrooms, 3 updated bathrooms, and a large garage with space for boats or jet skis. Newer furnace and tankless water heater make this home truly turn key.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$19,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,786
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hawley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #898
• US rank: #9570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $389,900 LCAR