Cibola Plan · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$177,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

🏗️ New construction. The $177,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,093.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $178k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-753/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,093
• List price: $177,990
• Delta: -32.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
939 Pertuso Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,531 (-0%)	1mo	$165,790	$108	85
914 Capracotta Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+8%)	1mo	$225,690	$136	77
905 Coperchiata Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+8%)	1mo	$189,990	$115	76
31418 Casacalenda Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+8%)	1mo	$169,990	$103	75
934 Capracotta Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-5%)	1mo	$244,990	$168	73
929 Capracotta Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+8%)	1mo	$163,990	$99	72
31408 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-5%)	1mo	$183,990	$126	71
903 Coperchiata Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-8%)	1mo	$253,990	$180	71
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$189,990	$131	70
31406 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$175,840	$121	70
31506 Olivella Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+12%)	1mo	$170,990	$99	68
912 Capracotta Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+14%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-46,755
• Equity at exit: $39,377

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,720
• Equity at exit: $22,834

Cash invested: $73,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,385
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,961/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,310

Max offer price $255,019

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,023
• Closing costs: $7,923
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.28mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,990 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $177,990 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,990 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $176,990 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,990 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,990 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,990 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,990 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,990 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,990 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2025-12-23
    listed $229,990 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,793
• − Property taxes: −$3,961
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$7,683
• Taxable loss: −$5,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
• Both Upgrading the flooring — New flooring can improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — New flooring can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $229,990 Zillow