Cibola Plan · Huffman, TX 77336

$181,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

🏗️ New construction. The $181,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,303.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $182k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 951 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,303
• List price: $181,990
• Delta: -30.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31522 Olivella Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-1%)	0mo	$185,990	$122	82
718 Rosa Bianca Way	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (+2%)	2mo	$207,990	$132	72
31214 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$182,990	$126	69
31221 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$186,990	$129	69
31513 Olivella Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+12%)	0mo	$186,990	$109	68
714 Pennabilli Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+12%)	0mo	$191,990	$112	66
726 Pennabilli Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	0mo	$198,990	$113	64
31521 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+12%)	2mo	$190,990	$111	63
707 Pennabilli Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	0mo	$206,990	$118	60
713 Pennabilli Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	2mo	$195,990	$111	59
31314 Miggiano Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$152,991	$112	57
31206 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (-15%)	2mo	$176,990	$135	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-57,526
• Equity at exit: $39,259

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-69,144
• Equity at exit: $22,766

Cash invested: $73,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 100 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $193,990 ($127/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +35.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,381
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,950/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,303

Max offer price $229,473

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-143	+0% $-234	+5% $-325	+10% $-416
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-313	+0% $-234	+5% $-154	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-167	base $-234	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,826
• Closing costs: $7,899
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Capracotta Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,800	$1.09	53d	1	0.20mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	114d	1	0.28mi
935 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,550	$1.30	10d	1	0.29mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,599	$1.18	33d	1	0.30mi
31208 Piccolo Fiore Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,695	$1.16	56d	1	0.30mi
31324 Miggiano Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,850	$1.56	10d	1	0.36mi
31318 Miggiano Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,850	$1.56	10d	1	0.37mi
28174 Farm to Market 1485 New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $181,990 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $181,990 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $181,990 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $181,990 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $181,990 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $181,990 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $181,990 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $181,990 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $181,990 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $181,990 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $181,990 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $181,990 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $181,990 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $181,990 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $181,990 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $181,990 Active 304 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $181,990 Active 303 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $181,990 Active 302 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $181,990 Active 301 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $181,990 Active 300 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $181,990 Active 299 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $181,990 Active 298 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $181,990 Active 297 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $181,990 Active 296 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $181,990 Active 295 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $181,990 Active 294 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $181,990 Active 293 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $181,990 Active 292 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $181,990 Active 291 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $181,990 Active 290 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $181,990 Active 289 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $181,990 Active 288 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $181,990 Active 287 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $181,990 Active 286 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $181,990 Active 285 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $181,990 Active 284 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $181,990 Active 283 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $181,990 Active 282 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $181,990 Active 281 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $181,990 Active 280 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $181,990 Active 279 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $181,990 Active 278 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $181,990 Active 277 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $181,990 Active 276 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $181,990 Active 275 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $181,990 Active 274 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $181,990 Active 273 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $181,990 Active 272 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $181,990 Active 271 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    pricedays on market $181,990 Active 270 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,950
• − Insurance: −$1,317
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$7,660
• Taxable loss: −$7,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,675–$23,025 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — New flooring can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $229,990 Zillow