Cibola Plan · Huffman, TX 77336

$181,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 274 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

🏗️ New construction. The $181,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,972.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $182k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 857 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,972
• List price: $181,990
• Delta: -31.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31506 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-1%)	1mo	$167,991	$110	77
926 Capracotta Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-5%)	1mo	$167,991	$115	74
930 Capracotta Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-5%)	2mo	$187,990	$129	73
718 Rosa Bianca Way	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (+2%)	0mo	$207,990	$132	73
31207 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$180,990	$125	67
702 Zuppino Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+12%)	1mo	$199,990	$116	66
31521 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+12%)	1mo	$190,990	$111	64
31509 Olivella Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	1mo	$199,990	$114	63
713 Pennabilli Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	1mo	$195,990	$111	60
31514 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	2mo	$209,990	$119	59
703 Pennabilli Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	1mo	$224,990	$128	58
31206 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (-15%)	1mo	$176,990	$135	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-56,841
• Equity at exit: $39,359

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-67,523
• Equity at exit: $22,824

Cash invested: $73,912 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 76 active · 89 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,490 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +32.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $231,946

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-130	+0% $-221	+5% $-313	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-301	+0% $-221	+5% $-141	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-154	base $-221	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,993
• Closing costs: $7,919
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Capracotta Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,800	$1.09	7d	1	0.20mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	69d	1	0.28mi
935 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,850	$1.56	11d	1	0.29mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,699	$1.25	11d	1	0.30mi
31208 Piccolo Fiore Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,695	$1.16	10d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $181,990 Active 274 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $181,990 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $181,990 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $181,990 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on market $181,990 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $180,990 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $180,990 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $180,990 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $180,990 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    price $180,990 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $178,990 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $178,990 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $178,990 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $178,990 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $178,990 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $178,990 Active 255 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $178,990 Active 253 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $178,990 Active 251 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $178,990 Active 250 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $178,990 Active 249 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $178,990 Active 248 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $178,990 Active 247 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $178,990 Active 245 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $178,990 Active 244 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $178,990 Active 243 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $178,990 Active 242 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $178,990 Active 241 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $178,990 Active 240 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $178,990 Active 239 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $178,990 Active 238 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $178,990 Active 237 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $176,990 Active 236 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $176,990 Active 235 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $176,990 Active 234 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $176,990 Active 233 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $176,990 Active 232 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $176,990 Active 231 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $176,990 Active 230 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $176,990 Active 229 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $176,990 Active 228 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $176,990 Active 226 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $176,990 Active 225 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $176,990 Active 224 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $176,990 Active 223 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $176,990 Active 220 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $176,990 Active 218 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $176,990 Active 217 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $176,990 Active 215 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $176,990 Active 213 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $176,990 Active 212 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,787
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$7,679
• Taxable loss: −$7,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,675–$23,025 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — New flooring can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $229,990 Zillow