18 Secluded Ranch Bend Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$104,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Good condition $96/sqft · at area comps Est $102k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 910 sq. ft. 2 Bed/ 2 Bath home merges sophisticated design with contemporary functionality. Every detail is thoughtfully designed to ensure both luxury and usability. Modern elements make it an exceptional choice in upscale living. This 55+ Resort-style community offers a Clubhouse, state-of-the-art gym, pool tables, pickle ball, and plenty of other outdoor and indoor activities to keep you active.

Key facts

• State-of-the-art gym
• Listed 195 days

Tags

• STATE-OF-THE-ART GYM
• OUTDOOR AND INDOOR ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.29%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,450
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: 2.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Vistawood St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+12%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	44
9871 Arbor Oak	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+12%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $11,588
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $35,055
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.45mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	43d	1	0.49mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	43d	1	0.49mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.50mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.54mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	0.55mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	1.22mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $104,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2025-12-04
    listed $104,900 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This 910 sq. ft. 2 Bed/ 2 Bath home merges sophisticated design with contemporary functionality. Every detail is thoughtfully designed to ensure both luxury and usability. Modern elements make it an exceptional choice in upscale living. This 55+ Resort-style community offers a Clubhouse, state-of-the-art gym, pool tables, pickle ball, and plenty of other outdoor and indoor activities to keep you active.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $4,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,169
• After-tax cash flow: $5,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 910 sq. ft. 2 Bed/2 Bath home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a small front porch or patio — Can increase the home's livability and appeal to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase the home's marketability and attract tech-savvy buyers or renters.
• Both Add a small outdoor kitchen or grill area — Can increase the home's appeal for outdoor entertaining and attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Install a smart thermostat and lighting system — Can increase energy efficiency and attract buyers or renters who value smart home technology.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or patio — Can increase the home's livability and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase the home's marketability and attract tech-savvy buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor kitchen or grill area — Can increase the home's appeal for outdoor entertaining and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat and lighting system — Can increase energy efficiency and attract buyers or renters who value smart home technology. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $104,900 Zillow