179 G Springville Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$989,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 288 Days on market

Built 1900 Good condition 0.48 ac lot $482/sqft · 26% below area Est $1.34M · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Timeless Springville Charm Near Smiths Creek Step back in time and embrace the authentic charm of this circa-1900 four-bedroom, two-bath residence, nestled in the highly sought-after Springville section of Hampton Bays. Set just a few hundred feet from picturesque Smiths Creek, and just a 2 mile distance to the Atlantic Ocean this special home offers serene water views from an upstairs bedroom an ever-changing backdrop of tidal beauty and coastal calm. Just 2 blocks to bay beaches this location is pristine. Great potential as a bed and breakfast.

Key facts

• Turn-of-the-century
• Historic appeal
• Potting shed

Tags

• TURN-OF-THE-CENTURY
• HISTORIC APPEAL
• ORGANIC FARM
• POTTING SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $989k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $989k).
• Recommended offer: $870k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.9% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,205/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $277k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($870k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $261k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $870,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,340,152
• List price: $989,000
• Delta: -26.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Hampton Harbor Ln	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,036 (-1%)	1mo	$1,045,000	$513	69
1 Gerald Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,962 (-4%)	14mo	$970,000	$494	57
4 E Rampasture Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,859 (-9%)	3mo	$1,052,000	$566	50
46 Neptune Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5	1,941 (-5%)	16mo	$850,000	$438	42
10 Robertson Ln	0.65mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,275 (+11%)	16mo	$975,000	$429	28
1 Ludlow Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,323 (+13%)	24mo	$885,000	$381	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-28,026
• Equity at exit: $147,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $322,310
• Equity at exit: $85,511

Cash invested: $276,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,335,000 ($647/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,186
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,236 /mo · $14,835/yr
• Insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,143
• Net cashflow: $1,227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,652

Max offer price $989,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,911	-5% $1,569	+0% $1,227	+5% $885	+10% $544
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $824	+0% $1,227	+5% $1,630	+10% $2,033
Rate	-1.0pp $1,725	-0.5pp $1,479	base $1,227	+0.5pp $971	+1.0pp $710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $247,250
• Closing costs: $29,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Harbor Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2500	$6,750	$2.70	36d	1	0.21mi
5 Mill Race Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	3000	$15,000	$5.00	184d	1	0.27mi
16 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$8,000	$3.48	10d	1	0.33mi
1 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2012	$29,000	$14.41	67d	1	0.35mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	165d	1	0.40mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	165d	1	0.42mi
35 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2221	$7,000	$3.15	10d	1	0.46mi
1A Gerald Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2200	$12,000	$5.45	10d	1	0.51mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	184d	1	0.52mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	165d	1	0.52mi
79 E Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1980	$15,000	$7.58	10d	1	0.59mi
23 E Point Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2614	$20,000	$7.65	10d	1	0.65mi
34 Norbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$4,000	$2.85	10d	1	0.75mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	159d	1	0.76mi
85 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1878	$4,500	$2.40	37d	1	0.85mi
23 N Westbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2212	$12,000	$5.42	165d	1	0.90mi
37 Wakeman Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	1.0	2226	$30,000	$13.48	158d	1	0.92mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	184d	1	0.95mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$5,412	$3.12	0d	1	0.98mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,475	$4.32	140d	1	0.98mi
61 Atlantic Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2130	$25,000	$11.74	147d	1	0.99mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$4,000	$2.36	5d	1	1.00mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$15,000	$9.33	140d	1	1.01mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	10d	1	1.06mi
55A Shinnecock Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$57,500	$25.00	165d	1	1.08mi
81 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	1664	$25,000	$15.02	184d	1	1.13mi
8 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2808	$18,000	$6.41	184d	1	1.14mi
5 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$14,000	$7.00	159d	1	1.17mi
27 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	5.0	3000	$22,000	$7.33	12d	1	1.20mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	10d	1	1.21mi
6 White Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	4.5	2458	$20,000	$8.14	127d	1	1.26mi
8 Westerly Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	165d	1	1.27mi
32 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1614	$4,980	$3.09	0d	1	1.27mi
8 Wakeman Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1932	$4,100	$2.12	71d	1	1.33mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	100d	1	1.35mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	10d	1	1.39mi
43 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2553	$25,000	$9.79	75d	1	1.39mi
51 Bellows Ter Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1503	$4,000	$2.66	21d	1	1.42mi
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$4,500	$1.67	0d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water connectedCesspool sewerElectric service by PSEG
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: GardenShed(s)Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingZoned cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomPartial atticBilco door(s) to basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement access (utility space)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $989,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $989,000 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $989,000 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $989,000 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $989,000 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $989,000 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $989,000 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $989,000 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $989,000 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $989,000 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $989,000 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $989,000 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $989,000 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $989,000 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $989,000 Active 273 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $989,000 Active 272 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $989,000 Active 271 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $989,000 Active 270 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $989,000 Active 269 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $989,000 Active 268 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $989,000 Active 267 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $989,000 Active 266 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $989,000 Active 265 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $989,000 Active 264 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $989,000 Active 263 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $989,000 Active 262 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $989,000 Active 261 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $989,000 Active 260 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $989,000 Active 259 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $989,000 Active 258 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $989,000 Active 257 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $989,000 Active 256 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $989,000 Active 255 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $989,000 Active 254 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $989,000 Active 253 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $989,000 Active 252 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $989,000 Active 251 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 251 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 250 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 249 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 248 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 247 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 246 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 245 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 244 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 243 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 242 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 241 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 240 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 239 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $122,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,399
• − Property taxes: −$14,835
• − Insurance: −$4,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,797
• − Management: −$9,797
• − Depreciation: −$28,771
• Taxable loss: −$1,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$261
• After-tax cash flow: $14,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,260–$30,780 screening

A charming, well-maintained single-family home with good curb appeal and potential for cosmetic updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen ceiling — Exposed beams, some wear
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water connectedCesspool sewerElectric service by PSEG
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: GardenShed(s)Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingZoned cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomPartial atticBilco door(s) to basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement access (utility space)

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid