179 G Springville Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 242 Days on market

Built 1900 Good condition 0.48 ac lot $560/sqft · 14% below area Est $1.339M · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Timeless Springville Charm Near Smiths Creek Step back in time and embrace the authentic charm of this circa-1900 four-bedroom, two-bath residence, nestled in the highly sought-after Springville section of Hampton Bays. Set just a few hundred feet from picturesque Smiths Creek, and just a 2 mile distance to the Atlantic Ocean this special home offers serene water views from an upstairs bedroom an ever-changing backdrop of tidal beauty and coastal calm. Just 2 blocks to bay beaches this location is pristine. Great potential as a bed and breakfast.

Key facts

• Turn-of-the-century
• Historic appeal
• Potting shed

Tags

• TURN-OF-THE-CENTURY
• HISTORIC APPEAL
• ORGANIC FARM
• POTTING SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.15M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.12M (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $983k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $983k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 113d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,833/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $983,293 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,339,034
• List price: $1,150,000
• Delta: -14.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Gerald Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,962 (-4%)	12mo	$970,000	$494	58
5 Gerald Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,028 (-1%)	23mo	$961,800	$474	54
4 E Rampasture Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,859 (-9%)	2mo	$1,052,000	$566	51
46 Neptune Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5	1,941 (-5%)	14mo	$850,000	$438	44
10 Robertson Ln	0.65mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,275 (+11%)	14mo	$975,000	$429	29
1 Ludlow Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,323 (+13%)	22mo	$885,000	$381	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-145,661
• Equity at exit: $171,469

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $95,566
• Equity at exit: $99,431

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.0 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,275,000 ($648/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,438 /mo · $17,250/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,065
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,060

Max offer price $1,124,044

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $218	+0% $-179	+5% $-577	+10% $-974
Rent	-10% $-956	-5% $-568	+0% $-179	+5% $209	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $113	base $-179	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Mill Race Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	3000	$15,000	$5.00	139d	1	0.27mi
16 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$8,000	$3.48	110d	1	0.33mi
1 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2012	$29,000	$14.41	21d	1	0.35mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	120d	1	0.40mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	120d	1	0.42mi
35 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2221	$28,000	$12.61	76d	1	0.46mi
1A Gerald Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2200	$12,000	$5.45	51d	1	0.51mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	139d	1	0.52mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	120d	1	0.52mi
23 E Point Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2614	$20,000	$7.65	11d	1	0.65mi
34 Norbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$4,500	$3.21	21d	1	0.75mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	114d	1	0.76mi
23 N Westbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2212	$12,000	$5.42	120d	1	0.90mi
37 Wakeman Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	1.0	2226	$30,000	$13.48	113d	1	0.92mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	139d	1	0.95mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,475	$4.32	95d	1	0.98mi
61 Atlantic Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2130	$25,000	$11.74	102d	1	0.99mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$4,000	$2.36	0d	1	1.00mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$15,000	$9.33	95d	1	1.01mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	139d	1	1.06mi
55A Shinnecock Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$57,500	$25.00	120d	1	1.08mi
81 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	1664	$25,000	$15.02	139d	1	1.13mi
8 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2808	$18,000	$6.41	139d	1	1.14mi
5 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$14,000	$7.00	114d	1	1.17mi
69 School St Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.5	2242	$30,000	$13.38	51d	1	1.19mi
27 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	5.0	3000	$22,000	$7.33	12d	1	1.20mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	139d	1	1.21mi
6 White Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	4.5	2458	$20,000	$8.14	82d	1	1.26mi
8 Westerly Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	120d	1	1.27mi
8 Wakeman Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1932	$4,100	$2.12	25d	1	1.33mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	55d	1	1.35mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	114d	1	1.39mi
43 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2553	$25,000	$9.79	29d	1	1.39mi
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$4,500	$1.67	0d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water connectedCesspool sewerElectric service by PSEG
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: GardenShed(s)Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingZoned cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomPartial atticBilco door(s) to basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement access (utility space)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 221 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 219 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 217 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 216 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 215 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 214 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 213 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 212 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 211 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 210 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 209 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 208 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 207 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 206 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 205 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 204 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 203 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 202 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 201 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 200 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 199 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 198 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 197 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 196 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 194 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 193 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 192 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 191 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 188 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 187 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 186 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 185 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 183 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 181 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 180 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $117,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$17,250
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,440
• − Management: −$9,440
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable loss: −$21,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,222
• After-tax cash flow: $3,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,260–$30,780 screening

A charming, well-maintained single-family home with good curb appeal and potential for cosmetic updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen ceiling — Exposed beams, some wear
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water connectedCesspool sewerElectric service by PSEG
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: GardenShed(s)Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingZoned cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomPartial atticBilco door(s) to basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement access (utility space)

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid