47 Birch Pl · Buffalo, NY 14215

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1918 6,660 sqft lot Est $203k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 47 Birch located in Buffalo, NY. Quiet neighborhood street in East Delavan area. Property has been owned for 30+ years by existing owner with immediate relatives who reside in property. Large 4+ bedroom vinyl sided property with 1 full bathroom on the first floor next to kitchen. House features a front porch, fully fenced yard, and additional lot included, 1 car garage, large formal living room, formal dining room (currently active as a family room) and many additional bonus rooms. Close proximity to East Delavan and Grider near neighborhood businesses, churches, and hospital ECMC. ECMC Hospital is visible from house. All contents will be removed by closing. Property will be fabulous with interior improvements. Structure is solid, Glass Block windows in basement, HVAC is serviced and Sellers can accommodate both extended and immediate closing date. Schedule your appointment and present your offer today. Please wear a mask at your appointment, thank you. All offers due by Tuesday, October 5, 2021 at 3p.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Double lot
• Big kitchen

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• ADJACENT VACANT LOT
• GREAT LIVING DINING SPACE
• BIG KITCHEN
• EXCELLENT LAYOUT
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Frame construction; Resale property
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular, residential lot (60 x 111)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Attic; Living/dining room; Loft; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,697/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.39%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,692
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Durham Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,550 (+2%)	1mo	$216,000	$139	87
323 Grider St	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (-7%)	1mo	$128,000	$90	76
316 Wyoming Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,474 (-3%)	8mo	$148,000	$100	75
51 Sussex St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,465 (-4%)	7mo	$251,000	$171	65
368 Northumberland Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,420 (-7%)	8mo	$125,000	$88	60
351 Cambridge Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,443 (-5%)	11mo	$220,000	$152	56
892 Northland Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-15%)	11mo	$200,000	$154	50
392 Humboldt Pkwy	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,602 (+5%)	10mo	$195,000	$122	43
374 Dewey Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,304 (-14%)	10mo	$238,000	$183	38
15 Stevens Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,315 (-14%)	11mo	$175,000	$133	38
624 Kensington Ave	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,742 (+14%)	8mo	$95,000	$55	36
855 Woodlawn Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,303 (-14%)	10mo	$116,500	$89	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,312
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $29,537
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $521	+0% $478	+5% $434	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $410	+0% $478	+5% $545	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $509	base $478	+0.5pp $445	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
563 Humboldt Pkwy Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2004	$1,200	$0.60	25d	1	0.75mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	16d	1	0.75mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.77mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	4d	1	0.85mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	16d	1	0.90mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	20d	1	0.97mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	16d	1	0.97mi
71 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1773	$1,100	$0.62	45d	1	0.97mi
110 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2098	$1,100	$0.52	25d	1	1.05mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	25d	1	1.08mi
121 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	1.23mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	45d	1	1.24mi
107 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,995	$1.70	45d	1	1.26mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	16d	1	1.27mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	16d	1	1.27mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	45d	1	1.29mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	25d	1	1.33mi
202 Summit Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	25d	1	1.42mi
1786 Main St Unit 103 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1110	$1,677	$1.51	45d	1	1.49mi
1786 Main St Unit 104 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1256	$1,875	$1.49	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $124,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-05-16
   listed $124,900 Active
7. 2024-06-24
   listed $149,000 Active
8. 2021-12-22
   soldstatus $97,000
9. 2021-12-21
   soldstatus $97,000 Closed Sale or Rented 1028-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

   Welcome to 47 Birch located in Buffalo, NY. Quiet neighborhood street in East Delavan area. Property has been owned for 30+ years by existing owner with immediate relatives who reside in property. Large 4+ bedroom vinyl sided property with 1 full bathroom on the first floor next to kitchen. House features a front porch, fully fenced yard, and additional lot included, 1 car garage, large formal living room, formal dining room (currently active as a family room) and many additional bonus rooms. Close proximity to East Delavan and Grider near neighborhood businesses, churches, and hospital ECMC. ECMC Hospital is visible from house. All contents will be removed by closing. Property will be fabulous with interior improvements. Structure is solid, Glass Block windows in basement, HVAC is serviced and Sellers can accommodate both extended and immediate closing date. Schedule your appointment and present your offer today. Please wear a mask at your appointment, thank you. All offers due by Tuesday, October 5, 2021 at 3p.

10. 2021-10-09
    status Pending Sale 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    Welcome to 47 Birch located in Buffalo, NY. Quiet neighborhood street in East Delavan area. Property has been owned for 30+ years by existing owner with immediate relatives who reside in property. Large 4+ bedroom vinyl sided property with 1 full bathroom on the first floor next to kitchen. House features a front porch, fully fenced yard, and additional lot included, 1 car garage, large formal living room, formal dining room (currently active as a family room) and many additional bonus rooms. Close proximity to East Delavan and Grider near neighborhood businesses, churches, and hospital ECMC. ECMC Hospital is visible from house. All contents will be removed by closing. Property will be fabulous with interior improvements. Structure is solid, Glass Block windows in basement, HVAC is serviced and Sellers can accommodate both extended and immediate closing date. Schedule your appointment and present your offer today. Please wear a mask at your appointment, thank you. All offers due by Tuesday, October 5, 2021 at 3p.

11. 2021-10-07
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    Welcome to 47 Birch located in Buffalo, NY. Quiet neighborhood street in East Delavan area. Property has been owned for 30+ years by existing owner with immediate relatives who reside in property. Large 4+ bedroom vinyl sided property with 1 full bathroom on the first floor next to kitchen. House features a front porch, fully fenced yard, and additional lot included, 1 car garage, large formal living room, formal dining room (currently active as a family room) and many additional bonus rooms. Close proximity to East Delavan and Grider near neighborhood businesses, churches, and hospital ECMC. ECMC Hospital is visible from house. All contents will be removed by closing. Property will be fabulous with interior improvements. Structure is solid, Glass Block windows in basement, HVAC is serviced and Sellers can accommodate both extended and immediate closing date. Schedule your appointment and present your offer today. Please wear a mask at your appointment, thank you. All offers due by Tuesday, October 5, 2021 at 3p.

12. 2021-10-01
    listed $79,500 Active 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    Welcome to 47 Birch located in Buffalo, NY. Quiet neighborhood street in East Delavan area. Property has been owned for 30+ years by existing owner with immediate relatives who reside in property. Large 4+ bedroom vinyl sided property with 1 full bathroom on the first floor next to kitchen. House features a front porch, fully fenced yard, and additional lot included, 1 car garage, large formal living room, formal dining room (currently active as a family room) and many additional bonus rooms. Close proximity to East Delavan and Grider near neighborhood businesses, churches, and hospital ECMC. ECMC Hospital is visible from house. All contents will be removed by closing. Property will be fabulous with interior improvements. Structure is solid, Glass Block windows in basement, HVAC is serviced and Sellers can accommodate both extended and immediate closing date. Schedule your appointment and present your offer today. Please wear a mask at your appointment, thank you. All offers due by Tuesday, October 5, 2021 at 3p.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $3,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$955
• After-tax cash flow: $4,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-06-24 Listed $149,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-21 Sold (MLS) $97,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-10-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-10-01 Listed $79,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $224 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.