135 Lakeview Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$195,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1970 0.43 ac lot $125/sqft · 37% below area Est $311k · 37% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is located on golf course. Open floor plan with a large kitchen and 10 X 3 and half foot island or breakfast bar and 2 living areas. 3rd bedroom with a large closet is at the back of the house facing the golf course. Outside storage in the back of the home and golf cart parking on the side. Home needs a few updates but is still in good condition. This home comes with the vacant lot at the corner of Port-O-Call and Lakeview.

Key facts

• Outside storage
• Large kitchen
• Sunroom

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• SUNROOM
• OUTSIDE STORAGE
• GOLF CART PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($742/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.8% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,481
• List price: $195,500
• Delta: -37.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Dolphin Ter	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+5%)	4mo	$299,800	$182	76
204 Lakeview Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+9%)	16mo	$285,000	$167	68
214 Driftwood CT Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,793 (+14%)	6mo	$315,000	$176	65
124 Sugar Ter	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+11%)	16mo	$245,000	$140	63
611 Segundo Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+2%)	15mo	$259,000	$163	59
215 Runaway Bay Dr	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,782 (+14%)	6mo	$254,000	$143	58
257 Lakeshore Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,695 (+8%)	12mo	$299,999	$177	57
502 Balboa Dr E	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+10%)	9mo	$299,000	$174	56
210 Bartlett Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+13%)	7mo	$349,900	$197	54
643 Lanai Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,729 (+10%)	10mo	$289,000	$167	44
617 Lanai Cir	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,763 (+12%)	2mo	$299,000	$170	40
621 Lanai Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-11%)	20mo	$219,000	$157	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,179
• Equity at exit: $48,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $14,710
• Equity at exit: $52,785

Cash invested: $54,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,025
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,681/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,684

Max offer price $195,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $117	+0% $62	+5% $6	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-8	+0% $62	+5% $131	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $112	base $62	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,875
• Closing costs: $5,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1210 Chestnut Ct Unit 1 Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1079	$1,800	$1.67	44d	1	1.36mi
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,700	$1.41	4d	1	1.37mi
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1207	$1,700	$1.41	7d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,500 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,500 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,500 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,500 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,500 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,500 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,500 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,500 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,500 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,500 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,500 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,500 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,500 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,500 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,500 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $195,500 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Home is located on golf course. Open floor plan with a large kitchen and 10 X 3 and half foot island or breakfast bar and 2 living areas. 3rd bedroom with a large closet is at the back of the house facing the golf course. Outside storage in the back of the home and golf cart parking on the side. Home needs a few updates but is still in good condition. This home comes with the vacant lot at the corner of Port-O-Call and Lakeview.

17. 2026-02-06
    status Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Home is located on golf course. Open floor plan with a large kitchen and 10 X 3 and half foot island or breakfast bar and 2 living areas. 3rd bedroom with a large closet is at the back of the house facing the golf course. Outside storage in the back of the home and golf cart parking on the side. Home needs a few updates but is still in good condition. This home comes with the vacant lot at the corner of Port-O-Call and Lakeview.

18. 2026-02-04
    historical Active Option Contract 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Home is located on golf course. Open floor plan with a large kitchen and 10 X 3 and half foot island or breakfast bar and 2 living areas. 3rd bedroom with a large closet is at the back of the house facing the golf course. Outside storage in the back of the home and golf cart parking on the side. Home needs a few updates but is still in good condition. This home comes with the vacant lot at the corner of Port-O-Call and Lakeview.

19. 2026-01-23
    listed $199,000 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Home is located on golf course. Open floor plan with a large kitchen and 10 X 3 and half foot island or breakfast bar and 2 living areas. 3rd bedroom with a large closet is at the back of the house facing the golf course. Outside storage in the back of the home and golf cart parking on the side. Home needs a few updates but is still in good condition. This home comes with the vacant lot at the corner of Port-O-Call and Lakeview.

20. 2024-07-01
    soldstatus
21. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus Closed 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Come take a look. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open concepts makes for a great family gathering space. Step out on to the golf course from your back door.. The community offers access to Lake Bridgeport. This listing includes the vacant lot next door, making a larger yard, or the opportunity to sell or build a new home.

22. 2024-06-17
    status Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Come take a look. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open concepts makes for a great family gathering space. Step out on to the golf course from your back door.. The community offers access to Lake Bridgeport. This listing includes the vacant lot next door, making a larger yard, or the opportunity to sell or build a new home.

23. 2024-06-12
    historical Active Option Contract 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Come take a look. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open concepts makes for a great family gathering space. Step out on to the golf course from your back door.. The community offers access to Lake Bridgeport. This listing includes the vacant lot next door, making a larger yard, or the opportunity to sell or build a new home.

24. 2024-02-25
    listed $215,000 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Come take a look. This home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The open concepts makes for a great family gathering space. Step out on to the golf course from your back door.. The community offers access to Lake Bridgeport. This listing includes the vacant lot next door, making a larger yard, or the opportunity to sell or build a new home.

25. 2023-12-13
    historical
26. 2023-10-30
    price $210,000
27. 2023-10-09
    price $217,500
28. 2023-09-21
    price $231,000
29. 2023-09-06
    price $239,900
30. 2023-08-12
    status Active
31. 2023-07-27
    historical Active Contingent
32. 2023-06-25
    price $247,900
33. 2023-06-08
    listed $265,000 Active
34. 2022-01-10
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2021-11-23
    status Pending
36. 2021-11-19
    historical Active Option Contract
37. 2021-10-23
    price $210,000
38. 2021-10-06
    price $220,000
39. 2021-08-06
    listed $240,000 Active
40. 2002-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,578 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: +$897/yr (+$75/mo · 33.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,951
• − Property taxes: −$2,681
• − Insurance: −$978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$5,687
• Taxable loss: −$2,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Runaway Bay, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $195,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-06-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-06-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-02-25 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-09 Price Changed $217,500 NTREIS
• 2023-09-21 Price Changed $231,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-07-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-25 Price Changed $247,900 NTREIS
• 2023-06-08 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-11-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-11-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-10-23 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2021-10-06 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2021-08-06 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2002-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,681 · -25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.