1280 Duck Rd Lot 49 · Duck, NC 27949

$44,500

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,720 sqft · Condo · 104 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the COLMAN - Share #4. SEMI-SOUNDFRONT WITH WATER VIEWS! Brand new updated kitchen is high end and very open for entertaining! New LVP flooring throughout the great room, dining, and kitchen. SHIPS WATCH is an Oceanfront to Sound front resort community in the heart of Duck. Fractional ownership at Ships Watch is a wonderful way for your family to experience a lifetime of vacationing in the Outer Banks at a fraction of the cost of whole home ownership. Ships Watch fractional owners purchase 10% ownership of the home and get 5 weeks of use each year. Ownership is deeded and goes beyond your lifetime. Weeks shift annually and calendars for the next few years are available. Homes are completely furnished down to beach chairs and an umbrella. The year-round on-site staff takes care of all maintenance and housekeeping. Community amenities include private beach access, pool and hot tub, tennis courts, playground, Sound front pier, boat ramp, weekly poolside picnics and planned summer activities for all ages. This particular home is located close to a 2nd community dock that is rarely used so it feels very private. Town of Duck is walking distance and offers great water-sport activities, restaurants, shopping and so much more!

Key facts

• Community dock
• Private beach access
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• COMMUNITY DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Boat dock; Playground; Association fees include cable TV, electricity, grounds maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Underground parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Stock cooperative (Co-Ownership available for 5+ weeks)
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Deck; Beach access; Has a view; Smoke detectors; Therapeutic whirlpool

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Wine cooler
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 partial bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump heating; Zoned heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Heat pump cooling; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Wet bar; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath condo listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 113.0% vs local median 1.2% in Duck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Dare County Schools (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #77 of 178 in NC (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 371 units permitted in Dare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dare County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,495 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 12.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 113.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 381.23%
• DSCR: 17.96
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.33×
• Total profit: $240,796
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 43.49×
• Total profit: $529,368
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27949

• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $3,892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Duck Ridge Village Ct Unit 2 Duck, NC	4.0	3.5	2700	$5,400	$2.00	21d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,500 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,500 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,500 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,500 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,500 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,500 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,500 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,500 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,500 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,500 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,500 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,500 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,500 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,500 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $44,500 Active
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $44,500 Active 1250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1250 chars)

    Welcome to the COLMAN - Share #4. SEMI-SOUNDFRONT WITH WATER VIEWS! Brand new updated kitchen is high end and very open for entertaining! New LVP flooring throughout the great room, dining, and kitchen. SHIPS WATCH is an Oceanfront to Sound front resort community in the heart of Duck. Fractional ownership at Ships Watch is a wonderful way for your family to experience a lifetime of vacationing in the Outer Banks at a fraction of the cost of whole home ownership. Ships Watch fractional owners purchase 10% ownership of the home and get 5 weeks of use each year. Ownership is deeded and goes beyond your lifetime. Weeks shift annually and calendars for the next few years are available. Homes are completely furnished down to beach chairs and an umbrella. The year-round on-site staff takes care of all maintenance and housekeeping. Community amenities include private beach access, pool and hot tub, tennis courts, playground, Sound front pier, boat ramp, weekly poolside picnics and planned summer activities for all ages. This particular home is located close to a 2nd community dock that is rarely used so it feels very private. Town of Duck is walking distance and offers great water-sport activities, restaurants, shopping and so much more!

17. 2025-07-03
    price $44,000
18. 2025-03-03
    soldstatus $39,500 Closed
19. 2025-01-23
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2025-01-12
    price $39,900
21. 2024-11-01
    price $49,500
22. 2024-07-09
    listed $49,500 Active
23. 2023-10-02
    price $52,500
24. 2023-06-05
    price $55,000
25. 2023-03-23
    price $60,000
26. 2020-07-01
    soldstatus $12,500
27. 2020-05-28
    soldstatus $11,500
28. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus $14,999
29. 2019-11-13
    soldstatus $14,500
30. 2019-11-07
    listed $13,999
31. 2019-10-30
    listed $13,999
32. 2019-09-24
    listed $14,999
33. 2019-09-24
    listed $14,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,184
• − Management: −$5,184
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $48,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,750
• After-tax cash flow: $34,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dare County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701110
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,233
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3866
• State rank: #77 of 178 in NC

Livability — Duck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duck, NC
• Population (ZIP): 8,094

Population outlook (Dare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,201 people
• By 2030: 40,756 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 43,015 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 44,477 · +13.5%
• By 2075: 48,522 · +23.8%
• By 2100: 50,980 · +30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dare

• 2024 margin: R (+18.8) · D 40.1% · R 58.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -18.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.8 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+22.1 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.21%
• Current HPI: 274.0118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+196.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $44,500 OBMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $44,500 OBMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $44,000 OBMLS
• 2025-03-03 Sold (MLS) $39,500 OBMLS
• 2025-01-23 Contingent — OBMLS
• 2025-01-12 Price Changed $39,900 OBMLS
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $49,500 OBMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $49,500 OBMLS
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $52,500 OBMLS
• 2023-06-05 Price Changed $55,000 OBMLS
• 2023-03-23 Price Changed $60,000 OBMLS
• 2020-07-01 Sold (MLS) $12,500 OBMLS
• 2020-05-28 Sold (MLS) $11,500 OBMLS
• 2020-01-17 Sold (MLS) $14,999 OBMLS
• 2019-11-13 Sold (MLS) $14,500 OBMLS
• 2019-11-07 Listed $13,999 OBMLS
• 2019-10-30 Listed $13,999 OBMLS
• 2019-09-24 Listed $14,999 OBMLS
• 2019-09-24 Listed $14,999 OBMLS