191 Burch Rd · Shepherd, TX 77371

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2006 6,250 sqft lot Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Adorable 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on . 143 unrestricted acres with convenient access to Shepherd and the I-69 corridor for an easy commute to Houston. Offering 1,100 SF, this home features an open-concept floor plan, abundant natural light, tile flooring, and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious kitchen includes a propane stove and flows seamlessly into the living area, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Recent updates include a new water heater (2025), septic system pumped (2024), and A/C replaced in 2016. One bedroom is currently being utilized as a third bedroom but could easily serve as a home office, hobby room, or flex space. Enjoy the large backyard wi

Key facts

• Propane stove
• Large backyard
• Unrestricted acres

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• PROPANE STOVE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2006; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 11; Additional bedroom/rooms totaling 9 rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 11 x 7; Bathroom (First floor) — 5 x 10
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Bath in primary bedroom; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 5 x 8

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-477/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shepherd Pri (499 students, 85% FRL); Shepherd Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 458 students, 84% FRL); Shepherd H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 601 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $263 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,106 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Vivian Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,212 (+10%)	4mo	$139,000	$115	67
150 Page Ave	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,132 (+3%)	4mo	$145,000	$128	67
510 Shoemaker Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	9mo	$175,000	$149	61
231 Page Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	21mo	$150,000	$142	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,940
• Equity at exit: $47,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,856
• Equity at exit: $58,143

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,105/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,361

Max offer price $151,974

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $5	+0% $-40	+5% $-85	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-92	+0% $-40	+5% $12	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $1	base $-40	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $159,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,105
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$772
• After-tax cash flow: $295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-07-25 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-07 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2004-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,105 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.