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7165 Inlet Isles Ct 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 30.13
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +7.1/10.0
  • Cash flow +5.4/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.2/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$706,204

7165 Inlet Isles Ct · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,246 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,760 sqft lot 2-car garage $350/mo HOA · 6% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Pool included! Step inside this beautifully designed 2,247 square foot home and discover an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, family and dining rooms—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a true showstopper, featuring quartz countertops, a smooth cooktop with vent hood, built-in stainless steel wall oven and microwave, plus a French door refrigerator and designer cabinetry. Just off the entry, a flexible den awaits, ideal for a home office or gym, while a nearby secondary suite offers privacy for guests. The owner’s suite is tucked at the back for ultimate retreat.

Key facts

  • Gated community
  • 6,760 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots

Tags

GATED COMMUNITYCENTRAL OPEN CONCEPT DESIGNEXPANSIVE COVERED LANAITWO BEDROOMS AND A DEN

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $706,204 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $839,304.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $706k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $573k (18.8% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $546k (22.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $546k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood Ranch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1687 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $5,459/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($685k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $545,863 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.65% ✗
Cap rate
3.67%
Cash-on-cash
-9.38%
DSCR
0.58
GRM
12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$839,304
List price
$706,204
Delta
-15.86%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
17932 Polo Trl 0.64mi 4/2.0 2,268 (+1%) 2mo $750,000 $331 67
7412 Summerland Cv 0.50mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,084 (-7%) 2mo $595,000 $286 58
7683 Summerland Cv 0.64mi 4/2.0 2,084 (-7%) 0mo $594,500 $285 58
18025 Harwich Pl 0.48mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,128 (-5%) 3mo $779,000 $366 58
7710 Summerland Cv 0.58mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,084 (-7%) 5mo $755,000 $362 52
17418 Blue Ridge Pl 0.69mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,198 (-2%) 4mo $620,000 $282 52
18025 Northwood Pl 0.36mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,518 (+12%) 5mo $835,000 $332 50
17802 Eastbrook Ter 0.34mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,508 (+12%) 7mo $850,000 $339 50
17614 Polo Trl 0.50mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,455 (+9%) 7mo $775,000 $316 47
17030 Loudon Pl 0.74mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,112 (-6%) 5mo $599,000 $284 46
17226 Seaford Way 0.64mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,488 (+11%) 0mo $750,000 $301 43
17619 Blue Ridge Pl 0.61mi 4/3.0 2,546 (+13%) 7mo $725,000 $285 40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-36.6%
Equity multiple
-0.14×
Total profit
$-268,761
Equity at exit
$125,143
10-year hold
IRR
-76.4%
Equity multiple
-0.90×
Total profit
$-445,378
Equity at exit
$72,568

Cash invested: $235,005 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
22 active · 16 under contract
Months of supply
7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$767,500 ($311/sqft)
Median days on market
51 d
This list price
32% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+20.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
-5.2%
Active inventory
1687
Price-to-rent
10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$5,459 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,401
Tax est. 1.5%
−$1,049 /mo · $12,590/yr
Insurance
−$350
HOA
−$350
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,146
Net cashflow
$-1,838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,785
Max offer price $573,354
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-1,258 -5% $-1,548 +0% $-1,838 +5% $-2,128 +10% $-2,418
Rent -10% $-2,269 -5% $-2,054 +0% $-1,838 +5% $-1,622 +10% $-1,407
Rate -1.0pp $-1,415 -0.5pp $-1,624 base $-1,838 +0.5pp $-2,055 +1.0pp $-2,277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$209,826
Closing costs
$25,179
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 28 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
18114 Waterville Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2054 $10,000 $4.87 0d 1 0.25mi
17850 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL 4.0 2.0 2257 $5,000 $2.22 10d 1 0.54mi
6647 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 1836 $3,595 $1.96 164d 1 0.69mi
7675 Summerland Cv Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2084 $5,000 $2.40 164d 1 0.70mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 2201 $3,950 $1.79 164d 1 0.76mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 2201 $3,950 $1.79 46d 1 0.76mi
17307 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 4.0 3.0 2032 $3,100 $1.53 6d 1 0.83mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1310 $7,000 $5.34 6d 3 1.09mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1310 $7,000 $5.34 127d 4 1.09mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1300 $7,000 $5.38 164d 5 1.09mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1310 $6,000 $4.58 138d 7 1.10mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 750 $6,000 $8.00 0d 6 1.10mi
17006 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL 4.0 3.0 2529 $3,495 $1.38 164d 1 1.10mi
7857 Redonda Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 2292 $4,200 $1.83 9d 1 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1453 $4,000 $2.75 160d 2 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1453 $6,000 $4.13 17d 3 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1453 $6,000 $4.13 10d 3 1.11mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $5,000 $2.80 51d 2 1.11mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $4,000 $2.24 10d 1 1.15mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $6,000 $3.36 164d 1 1.16mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $7,500 $4.20 10d 1 1.18mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1431 $3,163 $2.21 155d 1 1.18mi
7342 Divot Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1748 $2,800 $1.60 144d 1 1.22mi
17021 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 2650 $5,900 $2.23 164d 1 1.23mi
17637 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1786 $3,400 $1.90 10d 1 1.25mi
7564 Divot Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1748 $6,500 $3.72 0d 1 1.37mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2246 $10,000 $4.45 10d 1 1.38mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 2200 $13,000 $5.91 164d 1 1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Projected completion date: 2026-09-30Lot approximately 0.15 acresLandscaping includes treesCommunity features include reclaimed water irrigation
Financial info
CDD presentLease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA managed by ICON ManagementMonthly HOA fee of $350.33 (includes internet, grounds maintenance, management)Association approval requiredDeed restrictionsCommunity mailboxSidewalks and street lightsPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Deeded drivewayAttached 2-car garage
Security
Gated community
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedCable availableBB/HS internet availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter and recycled sprinkler
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyUnder constructionProperty faces northwest
Construction
Concrete constructionTile roofSlab foundationNew construction by Lennar Homes (Model: Maria)
Exterior features
Covered, screened rear porchPatioIn-ground heated pool with screen enclosureIn-ground spaExterior lightingSidewalksLandscaped yardIrrigation equipmentPaved surfaces

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalExhaust fanFreezerMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
Bedrooms
4 bedrooms
Flooring
Tile flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsStorm windows
Laundry & utility
Inside laundry roomWasherDryerInside utility

HOA detail $350/mo · $4,200/yr

Likely covers
poolgym

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $706,204 Active 46 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $706,204 Active 45 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $706,204 Active 44 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $706,204 Active 43 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $706,204 Active 42 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $706,204 Active 40 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $706,204 Active 39 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $706,204 Active 38 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $706,204 Active 37 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $706,204 Active 36 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $706,204 Active 35 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $706,204 Active 34 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $706,204 Active 33 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $706,204 Active 32 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $706,204 Active 31 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $706,204 Active 30 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $706,204 Active 29 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $706,204 Active 28 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $706,204 Active 27 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $706,204 Active 26 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $706,204 Active 25 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $706,204 Active 24 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $706,204 Active 23 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $706,204 Active 22 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $706,204 Active 21 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $706,204 Active 20 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $706,204 Active 19 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $706,204 Active 18 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $706,204 Active 17 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $706,204 Active 16 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $706,204 Active 15 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $706,204 Active 14 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $706,204 Active 13 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $706,204 Active 12 DOM
  35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $706,204 Active 11 DOM
  36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $706,204 Active 10 DOM
  37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $706,204 Active 9 DOM
  38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $706,204 Active 8 DOM
  39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $706,204 Active 7 DOM
  40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $706,204 Active 6 DOM
  41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $706,204 Active 5 DOM
  42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $706,204 Active 4 DOM
  43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $706,204 Active 2 DOM
  44. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on marketlisting id $706,204 Active 1 DOM
  45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $704,204 Active 113 DOM
  46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $704,204 Active 112 DOM
  47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $704,204 Active 111 DOM
  48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $704,204 Active 110 DOM
  49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $704,204 Active 109 DOM
  50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $704,204 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$65,504
− Mortgage interest
−$47,014
− Property taxes
−$12,590
− Insurance
−$4,197
− Repairs & maintenance
−$5,240
− Management
−$5,240
− HOA
−$4,200
− Depreciation
−$24,416
Taxable loss
−$37,393
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$8,974
After-tax cash flow
$-13,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new single-family home in Lakewood Ranch is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern design. It offers a spacious living area, a well-equipped kitchen, and a beautiful bathroom. The landscaping and curb appeal are already well-maintained, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
  • Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and modern. ↑
B Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert Willis Elementary School A+ FL #95/2,144 Nat'l #1,082/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Lakewood Ranch, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
52,177
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
24,980
Household income
$119,911
Rent vs Own
21.7% rent · 78.3% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (81%)
Race & ethnicity
White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
Languages at home
81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-10-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-09-23 Listed $706,204 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…