636 Elmwood Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$59,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1860 9,108 sqft lot Est $44k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Home is being Sold "AS-IS" Needs major Repairs No heat or Electric. double lot 7 Car Cinder Block​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ Garage

Key facts

• Double lot
• Cinder block garage
• 9,108 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• CINDER BLOCK GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $60k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.30%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,710
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
636 Elmwood Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	705 (0%)	1mo	$48,000	$68	94
1336 Elmwood Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	804 (+14%)	17mo	$50,000	$62	34
1130 Michigan Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	800 (+14%)	21mo	$23,000	$29	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $68,301
• Equity at exit: $53,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 12.49×
• Total profit: $192,758
• Equity at exit: $116,373

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $547

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
530 Main St Unit 14 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$1,050	$1.62	24d	1	0.49mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.53mi
463 3rd St Unit 5 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,000	$3.33	24d	1	0.57mi
463 3rd St Unit 6 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	44d	1	0.57mi
460 3rd St Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,212	$1.67	2d	1	0.60mi
616 Niagara St Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,288	$1.72	2d	1	0.64mi
714 Buffalo Ave Apt 5 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	528	$850	$1.61	3d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-27
   status Active
3. 2025-10-16
   listed $59,900 Active
4. 1993-06-23
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,091
• − Management: −$1,091
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $4,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $4,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+299.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 1993-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.