207 Manchester Dr · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$334,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 259 Days on market

Built 1989 0.54 ac lot $143/sqft · 17% above area Est $392k · 15% under $174/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Imagine calling a place like this home—where your backyard leads to secluded waterfalls and crystal-clear swimming holes. A private trail from your future home takes you to six breathtaking cascading waterfalls, ranging from 10 to 60 feet high, perfect for cliff jumping and summertime swims. As you arrive, you're greeted by the soothing sounds of rushing water—a natural welcome at the end of every day. Relax on the expansive two-level deck that stretches the full length of the house, offering uninterrupted views and the calming soundtrack of a nearby waterfall. Inside, the cathedral ceilings and walls of windows flood the home with light and frame sweeping mountain views and unforgettable sunsets. The spacious layout includes a multi-use laundry/jacuzzi room, often used as a fifth bedroom when hosting guests—plenty of potential here, whether you envision a cozy guest space or a custom sauna beside the hot tub. The sunroom off the updated kitchen offers year-round comfort and can be expanded to connect with the deck for even more open living. Head downstairs to the basement game room, complete with a pool table, and enjoy a separate entrance leading to a covered patio space beneath the deck—ideal for entertaining or developing a lush garden oasis. This is a home designed for both serenity and celebration, with room to grow and gather. Many guests have claimed it's the best sleep they've ever had here—and there's science to support the calming effects of waterfalls and natural white noise. Ready to stop imagining and start living next to a waterfall? Book a showing today—the current owner is happy to personally guide you along the private trail to experience the magic for yourself.

Key facts

• Uninterrupted views
• Secluded waterfalls
• Private trail

Tags

• SECLUDED WATERFALLS
• CRYSTAL CLEAR SWIMMING HOLES
• PRIVATE TRAIL
• TWO LEVEL DECK
• UNINTERRUPTED VIEWS
• MULTI USE LAUNDRY JACUZZI ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-758 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $285k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $200,028 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,351
• List price: $334,000
• Delta: -14.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 Stafford Dr	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (+3%)	2mo	$432,500	$181	72
235 Stafford Dr	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,406 (+3%)	1mo	$380,000	$158	67
270 Manchester Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,502 (+7%)	2mo	$275,000	$110	67
5249 E Woodbridge Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,304 (-1%)	12mo	$345,780	$150	63
195 Brentwood Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (-7%)	8mo	$357,500	$164	57
909 Tamaqua Rd	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,376 (+2%)	13mo	$352,000	$148	54
130 Alford Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,158 (-8%)	6mo	$247,000	$114	53
2171 Lancaster Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,394 (+2%)	8mo	$460,000	$192	52
154 Dunchurch Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,292 (-2%)	8mo	$320,000	$140	52
1010 Acorn Ln	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,147 (-8%)	4mo	$320,000	$149	51
906 Tamaqua Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,300 (-2%)	14mo	$245,000	$107	50
631 Wapita Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,611 (+12%)	11mo	$250,000	$96	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $1,194
• Equity at exit: $159,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $61,363
• Equity at exit: $253,996

Cash invested: $93,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,730/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$174
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,323

Max offer price $200,028

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,500
• Closing costs: $10,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $174 · $2,088/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $334,000 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,000 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,000 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,000 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,000 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $334,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,000 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,000 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,000 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,000 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,000 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,000 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,000 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,000 Active 239 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $334,000 1745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1745 chars)

    Imagine calling a place like this home—where your backyard leads to secluded waterfalls and crystal-clear swimming holes. A private trail from your future home takes you to six breathtaking cascading waterfalls, ranging from 10 to 60 feet high, perfect for cliff jumping and summertime swims. As you arrive, you're greeted by the soothing sounds of rushing water—a natural welcome at the end of every day. Relax on the expansive two-level deck that stretches the full length of the house, offering uninterrupted views and the calming soundtrack of a nearby waterfall. Inside, the cathedral ceilings and walls of windows flood the home with light and frame sweeping mountain views and unforgettable sunsets. The spacious layout includes a multi-use laundry/jacuzzi room, often used as a fifth bedroom when hosting guests—plenty of potential here, whether you envision a cozy guest space or a custom sauna beside the hot tub. The sunroom off the updated kitchen offers year-round comfort and can be expanded to connect with the deck for even more open living. Head downstairs to the basement game room, complete with a pool table, and enjoy a separate entrance leading to a covered patio space beneath the deck—ideal for entertaining or developing a lush garden oasis. This is a home designed for both serenity and celebration, with room to grow and gather. Many guests have claimed it's the best sleep they've ever had here—and there's science to support the calming effects of waterfalls and natural white noise. Ready to stop imagining and start living next to a waterfall? Book a showing today—the current owner is happy to personally guide you along the private trail to experience the magic for yourself.

18. 2025-10-03
    listed $339,999 Active 1745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1745 chars)

    Imagine calling a place like this home—where your backyard leads to secluded waterfalls and crystal-clear swimming holes. A private trail from your future home takes you to six breathtaking cascading waterfalls, ranging from 10 to 60 feet high, perfect for cliff jumping and summertime swims. As you arrive, you're greeted by the soothing sounds of rushing water—a natural welcome at the end of every day. Relax on the expansive two-level deck that stretches the full length of the house, offering uninterrupted views and the calming soundtrack of a nearby waterfall. Inside, the cathedral ceilings and walls of windows flood the home with light and frame sweeping mountain views and unforgettable sunsets. The spacious layout includes a multi-use laundry/jacuzzi room, often used as a fifth bedroom when hosting guests—plenty of potential here, whether you envision a cozy guest space or a custom sauna beside the hot tub. The sunroom off the updated kitchen offers year-round comfort and can be expanded to connect with the deck for even more open living. Head downstairs to the basement game room, complete with a pool table, and enjoy a separate entrance leading to a covered patio space beneath the deck—ideal for entertaining or developing a lush garden oasis. This is a home designed for both serenity and celebration, with room to grow and gather. Many guests have claimed it's the best sleep they've ever had here—and there's science to support the calming effects of waterfalls and natural white noise. Ready to stop imagining and start living next to a waterfall? Book a showing today—the current owner is happy to personally guide you along the private trail to experience the magic for yourself.

19. 2025-07-11
    price $339,999
20. 2025-04-21
    listed $355,000 Active
21. 2023-05-03
    soldstatus $285,000
22. 2022-10-14
    historical
23. 2017-05-25
    listed $134,900
24. 2017-05-19
    listed $134,900
25. 2015-06-11
    soldstatus $63,500
26. 2015-05-26
    soldstatus $63,500
27. 2015-03-16
    listed $63,500
28. 2004-05-18
    soldstatus $222,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,730 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,730 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,709
• − Property taxes: −$6,730
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,269
• − Management: −$2,269
• − HOA: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$9,716
• Taxable loss: −$15,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+50.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $334,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $339,999 PMAR
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $339,999 PMAR
• 2025-04-21 Listed $355,000 PMAR
• 2023-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-14 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2017-05-25 Listed $134,900 GLVRMLS
• 2017-05-19 Listed $134,900 PMAR
• 2015-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 2015-05-26 Sold (MLS) $63,500 PMAR
• 2015-03-16 Listed $63,500 PMAR
• 2004-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,730 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.