5465 W Lazy St S · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1974 3,659 sqft lot $62/sqft · 57% below area Est $105k · 14% under $208/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED FOR QUICK SALE!! DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS OPPORTUNITY!! Inviting interior features tons of natural light, vaulted ceilings, exposed beams, designer palette, and wood-look flooring t/out. The desirable great room is ideal for everyday living & entertaining! The eat-in kitchen boasts a gas range, white cabinetry, and a 2-tier peninsula w/breakfast bar. With 2 beds & 1 bath, this home is great for anyone looking to enjoy easy and low-maintenance living. You'll love the large Arizona room, where you can relax w/out worrying about the weather! The storage shed and the carport parking are added perks. Mountain views for you to enjoy! Take advantage of the Community amenities, including golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, and more. Move-in ready!

Key facts

• Natural light
• Eat-in kitchen
• Exposed beams

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• GREAT ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,000
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -14.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5677 W Circle Z St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	81
5650 W Lazy St S	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$138,000	$96	79
5451 W Bar St S	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	0mo	$170,000	$112	72
5536 W Tumbling F St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	2mo	$220,000	$170	72
5382 W Circle Z St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	0mo	$221,000	$144	71
5635 W Flying M St	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	2mo	$168,000	$127	70
5431 W Flying St W	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$211,000	$169	66
5422 W Circle Z St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	1mo	$170,000	$139	64
5322 W Flying Circle St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$165,000	$123	60
5700 W Box R St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$210,000	$168	60
5389 W Flying Circle St	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$196	57
5980 W Box R St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	2mo	$93,000	$76	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,594
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,391
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5709 W Rocking Circle St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$895	$0.85	44d	1	0.26mi
5849 W Flying M St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	44d	1	0.42mi
6174 W Lazy Heart St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,495	$1.04	44d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $90,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    PRICED FOR QUICK SALE!! DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS OPPORTUNITY!! Inviting interior features tons of natural light, vaulted ceilings, exposed beams, designer palette, and wood-look flooring t/out. The desirable great room is ideal for everyday living & entertaining! The eat-in kitchen boasts a gas range, white cabinetry, and a 2-tier peninsula w/breakfast bar. With 2 beds & 1 bath, this home is great for anyone looking to enjoy easy and low-maintenance living. You'll love the large Arizona room, where you can relax w/out worrying about the weather! The storage shed and the carport parking are added perks. Mountain views for you to enjoy! Take advantage of the Community amenities, including golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, and more. Move-in ready!

16. 2022-08-09
    status Pending 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Come see this cozy fully furnished home in the beautiful Tucson Estates Retirement Community! This home has fully upgraded floors, countertops/cabinets as well as a storage/laundry room and a very spacious Arizona room. Combined with beautiful mountain views and community amenities which include unlimited golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more! This residence can also serve as a good winter visitor or rental home. Come view it now!

17. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $122,000 Closed 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Come see this cozy fully furnished home in the beautiful Tucson Estates Retirement Community! This home has fully upgraded floors, countertops/cabinets as well as a storage/laundry room and a very spacious Arizona room. Combined with beautiful mountain views and community amenities which include unlimited golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more! This residence can also serve as a good winter visitor or rental home. Come view it now!

18. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $122,000

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Come see this cozy fully furnished home in the beautiful Tucson Estates Retirement Community! This home has fully upgraded floors, countertops/cabinets as well as a storage/laundry room and a very spacious Arizona room. Combined with beautiful mountain views and community amenities which include unlimited golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more! This residence can also serve as a good winter visitor or rental home. Come view it now!

19. 2022-07-21
    historical Active Contingent 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Come see this cozy fully furnished home in the beautiful Tucson Estates Retirement Community! This home has fully upgraded floors, countertops/cabinets as well as a storage/laundry room and a very spacious Arizona room. Combined with beautiful mountain views and community amenities which include unlimited golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more! This residence can also serve as a good winter visitor or rental home. Come view it now!

20. 2022-06-17
    listed $135,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Come see this cozy fully furnished home in the beautiful Tucson Estates Retirement Community! This home has fully upgraded floors, countertops/cabinets as well as a storage/laundry room and a very spacious Arizona room. Combined with beautiful mountain views and community amenities which include unlimited golf, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more! This residence can also serve as a good winter visitor or rental home. Come view it now!

21. 2016-11-18
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
22. 2016-11-18
    soldstatus $25,000
23. 2016-11-04
    historical Active Contingent
24. 2016-10-31
    listed $27,000 Active
25. 2016-02-10
    historical
26. 2015-08-07
    status Active
27. 2015-08-07
    historical
28. 2014-05-01
    price $39,500
29. 2013-11-08
    listed $41,500 Active
30. 2002-05-23
    soldstatus $35,000
31. 2001-05-20
    historical
32. 2000-12-20
    listed $39,900
33. 1996-09-20
    soldstatus $35,000
34. 1996-09-20
    soldstatus $35,000
35. 1996-03-05
    listed $37,500
36. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$402
• After-tax cash flow: $2,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+542.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $90,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-09 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-03 Sold (MLS) $122,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-21 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-06-17 Listed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-18 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-11-04 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2016-10-31 Listed $27,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-02-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2015-08-07 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2015-08-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2014-05-01 Price Changed $39,500 MLSSAZ
• 2013-11-08 Listed $41,500 MLSSAZ
• 2002-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2000-12-20 Listed $39,900 MLSSAZ
• 1996-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-20 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MLSSAZ
• 1996-03-05 Listed $37,500 MLSSAZ
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $674 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.