2893 Route 305 · Richburg, NY 14727

$70,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A single-story ranch home with 4-bedrooms and 2-bathrooms, this home features a large living room (25x15 ft) with a front-facing picture window, a spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and pass-through window to the dining room, a formal dining room (16x13 ft), a primary bedroom, three additional bedrooms, a flex or game room, two full bathrooms, and a combined laundry and mudroom with exterior door access to the backyard. The home sits on a nearly . 5 acre lot with beautiful views of the rolling hills and an open field in the back. The layout is single-floor and open in flow & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; kitchen, dining, and living areas connect naturally, making the home

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Pass-through window
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PASS-THROUGH WINDOW
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FLEX OR GAME ROOM
• COMBINED LAUNDRY AND MUDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#994 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $70k implies a 600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.09%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $47,227
• Equity at exit: $49,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $121,016
• Equity at exit: $94,320

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14727

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $806

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $364	+0% $345	+5% $325	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $295	+0% $345	+5% $394	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $362	base $345	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $70,000 Active 942-char remark
17. 2008-09-02
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$799
• After-tax cash flow: $3,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Richburg

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #994
• US rank: #19418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 322
• Population (ZIP): 5,039

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 298.31
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+600.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $70,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.