Denley Plan · San Antonio, TX 78245

$186,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 496 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $186,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $251,053.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 496 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,559 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 496 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.85%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,053
• List price: $186,999
• Delta: -25.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3914 Millbrook Way	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	2mo	$185,999	$137	81
3921 Millbrook Way	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	4mo	$179,999	$133	78
3838 Glade Crk	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	5mo	$175,999	$130	76
4031 Millbrook Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (+2%)	2mo	$228,999	$163	73
3906 Glade Crk	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (+2%)	2mo	$234,999	$168	73
3926 Glade Crk	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (+2%)	2mo	$222,999	$159	73
3913 Glade Crk	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (+2%)	1mo	$229,999	$164	72
3930 Glade Crk	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$227,999	$145	58
3914 Glade Crk	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$230,999	$147	58
4027 Millbrook Way	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	3mo	$223,999	$142	56
4011 Millbrook Way	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	4mo	$229,999	$146	56
3909 Glade Crk	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$226,499	$144	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-67,639
• Equity at exit: $37,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-106,848
• Equity at exit: $21,706

Cash invested: $70,295 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,317
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,766/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $201,481

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,763
• Closing costs: $7,532
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3919 Gristmill Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,545	$1.05	24d	1	0.15mi
14103 Chemtou Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.33mi
3833 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,497	$1.21	22d	1	0.39mi
3650 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,497	$1.33	24d	1	0.56mi
3651 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	24d	1	0.57mi
14360 W Grosenbacher Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,994	$2.05	2d	20	0.62mi
3614 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,548	$1.19	15d	1	0.63mi
5022 Flight Sail San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	24d	1	1.02mi
5035 Bay Breeze San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1834	$1,950	$1.06	24d	1	1.05mi
5115 Bay Breeze San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,849	$1.22	44d	1	1.10mi
2721 Barkey Spgs San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,900	$1.09	12d	1	1.18mi
5525 Mansions Blfs San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,613	$1.86	2d	48	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,999 Active 496 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,999 Active 495 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,999 Active 494 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,999 Active 493 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,999 Active 491 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,999 Active 487 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,999 Active 486 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $186,999 Active 485 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $186,999 Active 482 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,999 Active 481 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $186,999 Active 480 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,999 Active 479 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $187,999 Active 478 DOM
14. 2025-08-24
    price $190,999 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

15. 2025-07-17
    price $204,999 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2025-05-15
    price $214,999 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-02-08
    listed $213,999 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,063
• − Property taxes: −$3,766
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$7,303
• Taxable loss: −$8,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,069
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $190,999 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $204,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $214,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Listed $213,999 Zillow